Slight support fall for National in post-Budget poll

National has lost 1.1% party vote support in the four days since the Government presented its Budget.

A post-Budget HorizonPoll covering 1,758 respondents nationwide shows the potential centre left and centre right coalitions neck and neck.

The currently governing National-Act-Maori Party-United Future coalition has 42.7% support.

A Labour-Green-New Zealand First coalition would have 43% support. The Mana Party has 2.9% and Jim Anderton’s Progressives 0.8%.

The results are for people aged 18 plus who are:

• registered to vote
•  intending to vote and who have either
• decided who to support, or are
• undecided but have a current party vote preference.

The poll is weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, personal income, region and party vote 2008 to provide a representative population sample. The maximum margin of error at a 95% confidence level is +/- 2.3%.

The poll was conducted between May 20 and 23, following the May 19 Budget.

A pre-Budget poll was conducted between May 12 and 14.

Some 85% of responses were made before Labour presented its new policies, on research and development, bringing agriculture into the emissions trading scheme in 2013 and children, on Sunday May 22.

National has 35.5% of voters with a preference who will vote, compared with 36.6% the week before the election and 37.7% in April.  In March, following the February 22 earthquake in Canterbury, National rose to 41.2%, higher than its post Pike River mine disaster peak of 40.4%. It has lost 2.2% since April 20.

National has lost 7.5% of its 2008 voters to Labour, while 6.3% of Labour voters have switched to National.

Labour has 26.6% of committed, intending voters (26.9% pre-Budget).

It is picking up 34.4% of those who now intending to vote after choosing not to vote at the last election. National is picking up 19.2% of the last election’s non-voters.

Among those who voted for it in 2008, National has the highest loyalty (75.6%), compared with New Zealand First 74.3%, Labour 65.4%, Green 68.6%, Act 59.7%, Maori Party 30.5% and United Future 33.9%.

The Green Party has 9.3% intending voter support, New Zealand First 7.3%, Act 5.1%, Mana 2.9%, Maori Party 1.2%, United Future 0.9%, Jim Anderton’s Progressives 0.8%, other parties 1.2%.

The number of undecided with no current preference is 7.3%.

Act continues to poll over the vital 5% threshold needed to win seats in Parliament if it does not retain the Epsom electorate. It has 5.1%, compared with 5.3% on May 14.

Some 27.4% of Mana Party support is coming from 2008 Maori Party voters.

Mana is also picking up its support from United Future and other minor parties.

Maori Party is definitely down overall but it is not losing as high a share of their 2008 voters to Mana (27.4% May 23, 30.5% May 14).

The Maori Party must win seats.

The strategy for the some parties must be to deny Mana a seat.

With the left and right coalition mixes neck and neck - what will the Maori Party do? 

Full detailed party vote results are here.

METHODOLOGY NOTE:

Horizon party vote polling differs from other polls which telephone voters on landlines at random, and express decided voters as a percentage of 100 and do not weight results on 2008 party vote.

Horizon selects its respondents by e-mail to match the New Zealand population at the 2006 census.

Respondent samples are further weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, personal income, region and party vote 2008 to provide a representative population sample aged 18+.

Party vote respondents are further filtered to exclude those not registered to vote and not intending to vote.  Horizon also polls larger numbers of people than most other polls, in order to better indicate support for smaller parties, which have been vital in forming coalition governments under MMP.

NO TELEPHONE LANDLINE INCIDENCE:

Horizon Research shows 6.4% of New Zealanders 18+ do not have a landline telephone at home. This rises to 19.6% among 18 to 24 year-olds; 18.8% for those earning $100,000 to $200,000 a year and 12.5% for those earning less than $20,000 a year.

12.9% of business managers and executives no longer have a landline at home, along with 17.2% of students and 14.6% of labourers, agricultural or domestic workers.  13% of those flatting and boarding and 11.6% of one parent families have no landline at home.

HorizonPoll research finds 95.5% of its panellists have access to the internet at home, 39.3% at work, 19.1% by mobile, 7.3% at an internet café and 8.4% at a wireless hot spot.

For further information please contact:

Manager: Grant McInman

Telephone: 021 076 2040

E-mail: gmcinman@horizonresearch.co.nz