Maori post election government preferences

Maori most want the Mana and Maori parties, if they have seats in Parliament after the election, not to enter a National cabinet.

They prefer them to join a Labour cabinet, or support a government on an issue by issue basis, according to a specialist Horizon Research Maori Panel survey of 481 Maori in the four weeks ending July 6.

A parallel HorizonPoll survey of voting age New Zealanders of all ethnicities indicates the new Mana Party could attract 2.2% of the party vote, the Maori Party 0.9%.

This means Mana could have two to three seats in the next Parliament, if it wins an electorate seat.

Maori coalition government arrangement preferences are set against a feeling among 63.9% of Maori that the country is on the wrong track, 58.2% disapproval of Government economic management and concerns among 38% that their personal incomes will fall this year.

A majority (56.9%) also feel their households are financially worse off than a year ago.

As the country heads to a November 26 general election, only 16.1% of Maori want the Maori Party to again accept Cabinet seats in a National led Government.

Some 43.5% would prefer the Maori Party to accept Cabinet seats in a Labour led Government.

Only 9.7% want Mana to accept Cabinet seats in a National led Government, 38.7% in a Labour led one.

Between 21.1% and 25.7% of Maori want the Maori and Mana parties not to accept seats in either National or Labour led governments.

There is a preference among 30.3% of Maori for the Maori Party, and 30.2% for the Mana Party, to offer support to a government on an issue by issue basis.

Horizon Research nationwide Net Potential Vote poll results, which include those with a party choice,  and undecided voters with a preference, and exclude  those who are not registered to vote or don’t intend to vote,  indicate National will again need to make arrangements with minor parties in order to form a government.

A net 5.3% remain registered, intend to vote but undecided, while another 11.4% won’t say how they currently feel  when asked how they would cast their party vote if  a general election were  held tomorrow. The choices made by these people will determine which main party will form the next Government.

Horizon Research Maori Panel results:

Results of a specialist Horizon Research Maori Panel survey of 481 respondents, conducted between June 13 and July 6, 2011. Weighted by age, gender, personal income, employment status and region to represent the Maori population at the 2006 census. Maximum margin of error at the 95% confidence level +/- 4.5%.