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Research Results

Leaders' debate final result: Goff wins by 7.4%

2 Nov 11

Leaders' debate final result: Goff wins by 7.4%
Phil Goff .. 14.2% of National voters say he won, 63% of Labour voters

Labour leader Phil Goff won the first major televised debate with John Key by 7.4%.

 

Mr Goff scores 41%, Mr Key 33.6% in a nationwide poll of New Zealanders who were asked who won the debate.

 

The RadioLIVE-HorizonPoll survey of 534 debate viewers, taken on the day after the debate, is weighted by age, gender, region, ethnicity, personal income and party vote 2008 to provide a representative population sample. The maximum margin of error is +/- 4.2%.

 

Each leader scores positive ratings on their personal debating performances:

 

  • 53.3% think Mr Key’s performance was good to very good (17.8% very good) while 19.2% though it poor and 20.4% are neutral.
  • 54.7%% think Mr Goff’s performance was good (21.1% very good), while 16.8% thought it poor and 24.3% are neutral.

 

66.2% of people who voted National in 2008 say Mr Key won the debate, 19.1% thought Mr Goff won.

 

63.8% of people who voted Labour thought Mr Goff won, 8.6% thought Mr Key did.

 

Among the 187,000 registered electors who chose not to vote in 2008, an important group in this year’s election if they decide to turn out, 43.7% thought Mr Goff won, 15% Mr Key.

 

 

Q3. Who won the debate, in your view?

Multichoice - Single Answer Only

A. John Key
B. Phil Goff
C. Neither

    
 

Total

A

B

C

    
             

ALL

534

33.6%

41%

25.4%

    
     

PARTY VOTE 2008

    

ACT New Zealand

3%

54.4%

16.4%

29.2%

    

Chose not to vote

16%

15%

43.7%

41.3%

    

Don't know or can't remember

5%

38.4%

61.6%

      

Green Party

6%

2.2%

81.9%

15.9%

    

Jim Anderton's Progressive Party

1%

8.4%

56.2%

35.4%

    

Labour Party

24%

8.6%

63.8%

27.6%

    

Maori Party

2%

27.4%

44.7%

27.9%

    

National Party

36%

66.7%

14.2%

19.1%

    

New Zealand First Party

4%

7.2%

69.3%

23.5%

    

Other party

2%

16.9%

10.8%

72.3%

    

United Future

1%

47%

16.5%

36.5%

    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Survey timing timing: 8 am – 6pm 1 November 2011

 

Horizon research is scientifically conducted using a weighted random select of members of its nationwide HorizonPoll panel, 95% of whom recruited by e-mail invitation to match the New Zealand population at the 2006 census. Respondent samples are further weighted to ensure a representative population sample.

 

For further information please contact:

 

Grant McInman

Manager

Horizon Research

Telephone: 021 076 2040

E-mail: gmcinman@horizonresearch.co.nz

Labour leader Phil Goff won the first major televised debate with John Key by 7.4%, according to the final result of a RadioLIVE-HorizonPoll.

 

Mr Goff scores 41%, Mr Key 33.6% in a nationwide poll of New Zealanders who were asked who won the debate.