Oh that's close! Online v Phone poll

It's a very close call: a 0.7% difference between an online survey and a telephone one on SOE sales.

The results of a Horizon Research survey of 2,102 of members of its nationally representative HorizonPoll adult panel finds 52.9% of New Zealanders aged 18+ oppose the sale of shares in State Owned Enterprises.

This compares with 52.2% opposed in a March 14-17 telephone poll of 750 respondents published by the New Zealand Herald on March 22.

Horizon found 31% of adults either definitely buying or interested in buying SOE shares. The Herald poll found 30% interest overall. (No "definite" indication was reported).

The HorizonPoll sample was pre-selected to reflect demographics of New Zealanders 18+ years at the 2006 census and is post-sample weighted on age, gender, ethnicity, personal income, education level and employment status. The survey has a maximum margin of error of ±2.1% overall at a 95% confidence level.

The Herald Digi poll has a maximum margin of error of +/-3.6%. Sampling method detail and weighting criteria were not published with the results.

New Zealanders are now wired up sufficiently to allow polling of representative online samples of the population:

• 86%+ of the New Zealand population has internet access (3.8 million+ people) (Source: AUT)

• 92% of the New Zealand population has a landline (90% of those with internet access)

• 50% of all adults in NZ have smartphones – will reach 60% by June 2013 (Source: Horizon Research July 2012 and March 2013)

Horizon conducts both telephone and online surveys.

It specialises in online research, with its HorizonPoll national 18+ and Horizon Research Maori panels and in developing online research panels for clients.

Delivering compelling results with greater speed and cost efficiency online appears to be in the ascendency over landline telephone polling. Already the number with online access exceeds the number online who have a landline.

Horizon's research indicates large numbers with landlines prefer to use their mobiles only for calls, making them harder for phone pollsters to reach. Combined telephone landline-mobile-online surveys are now possible, with weighted result available in real time.

Just as we find online banking now used by more than 60% of adults, online has become a way of allowing New Zealanders to be quickly heard, in greater depth than by telephone.

For further information, please contact

Grant McInman, Manager, Horizon Research

Telephone -021 706 2040

E-mail: gmcinman@horizonresearch.co.nz