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Large majorities of NZ First voters would prefer coalition deal with Labour

2 Sep 14

Credit: NZF

Large majorities of NZ First voters would prefer coalition deal with Labour

Winston Peters tough choice if he goes with National: 71% of his voters want Labour

67% of those who voted for New Zealand First at the 2011 general election would prefer Labour to lead a coalition government if one is needed after September 20’s general election.

The majority preference for a change of Government among the party’s voters underscores the “difficult” decision making party leader Winston Peters says he will face.

A new HorizonPoll, surveying 1,676 eligible voters between Friday August 29 and Tuesday September 2, also finds 71.1% of those currently intending to cast a party vote for New Zealand First would prefer a Labour-led government. 28.9% would prefer National.

Among New Zealand First’s 2011 voters 67.0% would prefer Labour, 33.0% National.

The result for all respondents reflects the potentially tight electoral race:

48.7% would prefer a National-led government, 51.3% a Labour led one. Given the survey’s margin of error the result is too close to call.

The survey is of members of Horizon Research’s national online panel, representing the adult population at the last census. Results are weighted by age, gender, personal income, educational qualifications and party voted for at the 2011 general election to ensure a representative population sample. At a 95% confidence level, the maximum margin of error is +/- 2.4%.

The maximum margin of error on the New Zealand First voter sub sample is +/- 7.1%. A preference for a Labour-led government would still be found if the maximum margin of error were applied.

Coalition leadership preferences by intended 2014 party vote and 2011 general election party vote

If there is a coalition government after the next general election, which main party would you prefer to lead it?	ALL	If a New Zealand general election were held tomorrow, for which party would you cast your party vote?
	ALL	ACT New Zealand	Conserv-ative	Green Party	Labour Party	Mana Party	Maori Party	National Party	New Zealand First Party	United Future	Other party	Would choose not to vote	Not eligible to vote	Don't know

Labour	51.3%	13.8%	20.9%	88.0%	86.2%	99.3%	58.2%	1.4%	71.1%	3.3%	88.0%	66.9%	N/A	71.9%
National	48.7%	86.2%	79.1%	11.9%	13.8%	0.7%	41.8%	98.6%	28.9%	96.7%	12.1%	33.1%	N/A	28.1%


N	1,531	25	98	312	53	419	11	583	193	9	9	20	2	68

If there is a coalition government after the next general election, which main party would you prefer to lead it?	ALL	PARTY VOTE 2011
	ALL	ACT New Zealand	Conservative	Green Party	Labour Party	Mana Party	Maori Party	National Party	New Zealand First Party	United Future	Other party	Chose not to vote	Was not eligible to vote	Don't know or can't remember

Labour	47.6%	0.0%	32.7%	93.9%	93.2%	100.0%	55.7%	8.7%	67.0%	28.5%	80.0%	71.3%	51.0%	52.4%
National	45.4%	100.0%	67.3%	6.1%	6.8%	0.0%	44.3%	91.3%	33.0%	71.5%	20.0%	28.7%	49.0%	47.6%


N	1,532	17	42	250	362	11	14	520	114	10	4	43	10	32

Horizon’s July-August nationwide survey results on coalition leadership preferences are here

http://horizonresearch.co.nz/page/378/59-of-intend

For further information please contact

Grant McInman, Manager, Horizon Research

Telephone: 021 076 2040