Large majorities think Ardern best to manage pandemic, economy

Jacinda Ardern is seen by large majorities of New Zealanders as the best parliamentary party leader to manage both the response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic recovery from it.

She is favoured by

• 66% of adult New Zealanders as best to manage the pandemic response, and by
• 53% to manage the economic recovery.

An independent Horizon Research nationwide survey between June 10 and 14 (midnight Sunday) finds National’s new leader, Todd Muller, is regarded as best to manage the pandemic response by 14% and the economic response by 24%.

Pandemic response – other leaders:

ACT leader David Seymour is regarded by 4% as best to manage the pandemic response, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters rates 3% and the Green Party leaders James Shaw and Marama Davidson each rate 1%.  10% say none of the six leaders of the five parties currently in Parliament is best to manage the response.

Economic recovery response:

Jacinda Ardern has a 29% lead over Todd Muller as best to manage the pandemic economic recovery.

Winston Peters at 4% runs third on economic recovery management, followed by David Seymour on 3% and Marama Davidson and James Shaw each on 2%.

The survey of 1,636 adults was conducted as a public interest project by Horizon using its nationwide HorizonPoll panel and a third-party research panel. Results are weighted on age, gender, highest education, personal income, employment status and 2017 party vote. At a 95% confidence level, the margin of error is ±2.5%.

The survey closed at midnight Sunday June 14, before two new COVID-19 cases were reported on Monday and lapses in quarantine policy enforcement were made public.

In comments on the survey, Horizon says:

Managing COVID-19 pandemic response

• Ardern has the advantage of having been involved in the pandemic response from the outset.  Muller has not been visible through the response phase, except at the tail end when the focus was on economic recovery.
• All demographic groups except those with household income greater than $200,000 per year and those who gave their party vote to the Conservative Party in 2017 rate Ardern as best to manage the response.  Those with household income of more than $200,000 per year and those who gave their party vote to the then Conservative Party in 2017 prefer Muller.
• Among those who are registered and 100% likely to vote, the preference for Muller improves from 14% to 18%; the preference for Ardern drops marginally from 66% to 65%.
• Males tend to rate Muller more highly than females.  Those who say they are registered and 100% likely to vote, however, are 55% female (females constitute 51% of the adult population).

Managing the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic response

• Ardern is seen as better to manage the economic recovery from the pandemic response than Muller.
• Females again rank Ardern more highly than males (17% of males think that “None of these” would be best to manage the economic recovery, versus 9% of females), but tend to rank Muller equally with males.
• Those aged 65+ rank Muller more highly than Ardern on economic recovery.  Those aged 65+ constitute 24% of those survey respondents who are both registered and 100% likely to vote, compared with the adult population ratio of 20%.
• Those with household income of more than $200,000 per year (3% of those respondents who are registered and 100% likely to vote) and personal income of more than $100,000 per year (6% of those registered and 100% likely to vote) rank Muller ahead of Ardern; however, all other income groups rank Ardern ahead of Muller.
• Farm Owners/managers (2% of those registered and 100% likely to vote) and Retirees/ Superannuitants (16% of those registered and 100% likely to vote) rank Muller ahead of Ardern.  Busines proprietors/self-employed rank them as equal.  All other occupation groups rank Ardern ahead of Muller.
• Muller comes closer to Ardern among respondents in couple-only households (34% of those registered and 100% likely to vote) but Ardern still out-points Muller among those respondents.
• Those who gave their party vote to the National Party in 2017 think Muller would be better than Ardern to manage the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic response, as do those who gave their party to vote to the then Conservative Party (however, among those who gave their party vote to the then Conservative Party, David Seymour is ranked as best to manage the economic recovery).  Among all other 2017 voters, however, Ardern is ranked ahead of Muller.
• Overall, 52% of those registered and 100% likely to vote rank Ardern as best to manage the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic response, 29% rank Muller as best.

If you'd like to be heard in surveys like this, you're welcome to join the HorizonPoll research panel.

You are welcome to comment at our Facebook page.

For further information please contact:

Grant McInman, Manager, Horizon Research, email gmcinman@horizonresearch.co.nz, telephone 021 076 2040.