Among registered, definite voters election too close to call

The latest Horizon Research party vote poll finds a Labour-Greens collation with 44% of voters who are currently registered to vote – and 100% likely to vote.

A National-Act coalition has 42% support.

However, New Zealand First is at 4% and the New Conservative Party at 3% -  and close to breaking the 5% threshold to win representation, without having to win an electorate seat.

If it wins one electorate seat, Te Pāti Māori Māori will have three seats in Parliament.

A Labour – Green - Te Pāti Māori arrangement would have 63 seats in a 120-seat Parliament.

A National – Act - Te Pāti Māori arrangement would have 60 seats.

Horizon says all results and seat outcomes are currently within the poll’s 3% margin of error and notes that results for all parties other than Labour, National, Green and Act are indicative only because of small sub sample sizes.

The results are for people who are 18+ and both registered to vote and 100% likely to vote.

Horizon says projecting turnout based on the number who are 100% certain they will vote generally reflects the actual numbers who end up voting.

Overall shifts

Horizon says the results reflect the very large loss of support for Labour, from a high measured during the early stages of the COVID-19 health emergency in 2020, and the return by voters since late 2021 to their traditional political corners.

This happened with the end of the COVID-19 elimination strategy and the advent of COVID-19 community outbreaks.

In Horizon polling in July and August 2020 Labour had 48% support among registered and definite voters, translating to 63 to 64 seats.

It now had 34% support, a loss of 14%, translating to 46 seats.

National’s support had risen from 25% in July 2020 to 32%, up 7%, translating to a rise from 33 seats to 43.

Horizon says it measured a 16% shift directly from National to Labour during the 2020 pandemic emergency.

Changing loyalties:

Labour: 57% of those who voted for Labour at the 2020 election are still intending to vote Labour. 10% of  its 2020 voters have switched to National.

National: 70% of National’s 2020 voters are still supporting the party, 9% have switched to Act, 2% to Labour and 3% to the New Conservatives Party.

Act: 68% of its 2020 voters remain loyal, while 20% have gone to National and 3% to the New Conservatives.

Green: 76% of its 2020 voters remain loyal, while 12% of the 3% intending to vote for the Māori party were Green voters in 2020.

Te Pāti Māori: 75% of its 2020 voters still intend voting for it. Note this survey is of party vote intentions, not electorate/ candidate voting intentions.

New Zealand First: 50% of its 2020 voters still intend voting for it.

New Conservatives: 46% of its 2020 voters would currently vote for it.

Horizon surveyed 1,044 people aged 18+ online between July 29 and August 3, 2022. The sample is weighted by age, gender, personal income, region, party voted for at the 2020 general election and education level to represent the adult population at the most recent census. At a 95% confidence level the maximum margin of error overall is +/- 3%.

Note, Horizon’s results may differ from some other polls because they report voting intention by people who are both registered to vote and are 100% likely to vote (on a scale of 0 to 100%).

The poll was not conducted for any political party.

Further information:

Graeme Colman, Principal, Horizon Research, email gcolman@horizonresearch.co.nz; telephone 021 848 576.