What Kiwis say on growth forecasts

2011 Budget

Firstly, some background for you...

In its 2011 Budget statement, the Government says it wants to generate faster economic growth and control its spending.

The Government is currently borrowing $380 million in new net debt per week and will run a record deficit of $16.7 billion in the current financial year.

The budget plans to make $5.2 billion in savings, will cut some existing spending over the next 5 years and will reduce discretionary new spending by $1.2 billion over the next 4 years. 

From these savings, $4 billion will be redirected to new initiatives over the next 4 to 5 years.

To help reduce its spending, the Government will:

·         cut contributions to KiwiSaver by $2.5 billion over the next 4 years

·         cut $448 million from Working for Families over the next 4 years

·         require the state sector to make $980 million in savings over the next three years

The Government will also sell shares in State assets with a value of $5 billion to $7 billion.

The Government plans to reduce the amount it needs to borrow by $5.6 billion over the next 5 years and return the budget to surplus in the 2014/2015 financial year. 

Whether it does many of these things will depend on how you vote in the November 26 election this year.  We would like your views on these measures and how they will affect you, your household and business.

1. Firstly, in its 2011 Budget statement, the Government forecasts economic growth at 4% next year and that 170,000 new jobs will be created over the next 4 years. How realistic do you think these assumptions are?

2. Why do you say that?

Qualitative Responses

• Everyone knows how tight spending is and the budget has done nothing to encourage or help the average person to spend more. Many are just surviving. If spending does not increase how is anyone going to afford to employ anybody?
• Money speaks louder than words, cus l'm 1 of those ppl that are here trying 2 start a business 2 educate these ppl 4 the jobs that the govt are talking about. And with accommodation on site l can have ppl from all around the country and even have ppl interested in the course from Aussie, cus they have the same problem over there.
• It is based on the Canterbury Earthquake recovery and rugby world cup, both temporary events, those jobs will go in time.
• Previous and current NZ Governments have ensured NZ is very reliant on overseas global trade and as such NZ is at the mercy of world politics and economics, absolutely nobody can predict earthquakes, or further natural disasters, or manmade conflicts, which would or could affect the Governments predictions
• the economic growth is a guess
• they haven't put in a foundation for this
• "Plans" are easy to talk about. I don't believe anything they say.
• 1. Nats have moved left to suck up to the Maori party [I was a Nats Chairman] and no longer trust Smiley John as I did.
  2. There are many uncertainties in NZ and internationally so it may be too theoretical???
• 1. Their wait and see attitude will not deliver that.
  2. NZ has not achieved in the past so many years. We are still in recession. So on what basis will they be able to deliver that? Are they dreaming?
• 170,000 jobs seems a bit unreal
• 170,000 jobs....what about the cycle way that was going to create 100's of jobs...what a load of s**t
• 170,000 new jobs over 4 years with improving economy sounds feasible
• 170,000 new jobs was the same number in last year’s budget ( never happened) and KiwiSaver will have an impact on jobs also
• 170,000 new jobs, even over 4 years is a lot of jobs which I just can't see happening. Seeing more news about people being laid off than new jobs being created.
• 1st thing Bill English is saying that there will be some more people who will lose job after the this budget. the govt is not interested to keep the people on job, one day terminate their position and jobs and promise them that next year will be on the job again , what that person do for the whole year and two and who knows that govt change its mind next year then what.
• 3 years ago we had the "closing the gap with Aust." and the summit for job creation "cycle tracks" etc. !!!.All smoke and mirrors in my opinion.
• 4 years !!!!!
• 4% growth is a long way from where we are now, and Treasury has a poor record of getting of getting its projections correct.
• 4% growth is totally unrealistic. No government has ever created 170,000 new jobs in such a depressed economic climate.
• 4% is just spin to make the public swallow the cuts. 'Growth' is set up as the Holy Grail, but really that much growth is unsustainable any way you look at it. There may be that much growth in speculation, but at the expense of lower incomes.
• 4% seems on the high side unless its Canterbury rebuilt that's doing it.
• 4% seems optimistic. 170000 new jobs are possible but how many will lose theirs in the same time frame.
• 4% yes but can’t see 170000 new jobs
• a 4% growth in 1 year is completely unrealistic, even if it is possible, it is such a great increase in such a short time that there is no way it could be maintained under the current economic climate
• A good budget looking forward for growth
• a lot of people out wanting jobs now & even more will be wanting jobs
• A lot of this seems to be smoke and mirrors. What happened to all the new jobs promised by this Government when they came into power? They seem hell bent on putting more people out of work.
• A realistic budget in view of all that has happened in New Zealand over the last six months
• Account hasn't been taken of significant increases in energy costs, especially for oil products; and they continue to shackle our economy with the burden of interest-bearing borrowings rather than zero-interest funds from the RBNZ (to be repaid [i.e. cancelled] from future surpluses).
• All depends on global markets, what is going to happen with China's economy, and whether there is going to be another worldwide financial meltdown.
• All external factors are pointing towards recovery
• All past forecasts of this Government has been unrealised so there is no hope of this forecast being accurate.
• all the policies they have put in place will remove hundreds of jobs from the public service
• all theory
• all Treasury forecasts so far have been wrong
• All companies are moving jobs to China for cheap labour
• a lot can happen in 4 years if they have crunched the numbas right it could work
• always a growth period after a recession
• And pigs might fly.
• anything can happen if you put your mind to it
• Apart from Christchurch where there is going to be an increase in jobs and economic growth because of reconstruction following the earthquake I think that there is unlikely to be increases in other parts of the country. Christchurch is the only place where the government is making any investment to enable an improvement of the magnitude stated.
• apart from Christchurch, there is very little growth in employment
• Apart from the Christchurch rebuild I do not see any stimulus for other businesses
• Are the jobs there?
• Are they going to pull the jobs out of thin air?
• As a retired person there was nothing there for me
• As history (at least of late) has shown, what is 'said' or 'predicted' more often than not, fails miserably. Unrealistic that "170,000 new jobs will be created in the next 4 years" - if this were possible, why did this not happen already? What kind of "jobs" are they going to create? Until all this happens, i remain wholeheartedly sceptical.
• As long as they can rein in Government spending, and that includes the ministerial perks, it could be achievable
• As long as we do not suffer any further catastrophes like the Christchurch earthquake the government will be able to put its practices into use and growth will start slowly then gain impetus.
• As the govt tightens its control then why can't we?
• As this last year has shown, things cannot be predicted or budgeted for - like two earthquakes - so this seems to be kind of a 'best scenario' option.
• Assuming no major earthquakes etc. again sounds doable.
• At my Age now that I am No Longer able to Work, I feel This Budget probably will affect my income and will increase my Cost of Living Dramatically over the next few years.
  
  BUT, I sure as Hell Hope Not But I will keep my Fingers, Legs and Everything else X'ed in the Hope that I will Survive the Onslaught of Higher Costs of Living expenses that will Inverably Hit us like a Ton of Bricks that will Hurt us all where it Hurts most and that is In Our income.
• at no stage have they intimated new industry or business to generate new jobs and income
• At present there are too many unknowns especially in the wider world and some events
  may affect NZ.
• Awaiting further quakes to come in the Canterbury area. Overall fall out from Japan is still shaky. US economy is still not great.
• Based on history
• Based on sound forecasts
• Based on the right assumptions
• based on their previous prediction
• Because there is still a recession happening. Also with the earthquake in Christchurch this has left a lot of people without employment and a huge debt for the country.
• Because a country of this size can only grow at a certain rate over an extended period of time and they are already having problems finding enough people for jobs.
• Because all eligible workers will have gone to Australia
• Because all similar forecasts over the past three years have been way off mark, and nothing suggests this will be any different.
• Because all things are uncertain.
• Because a lot of economic growth still depends. On growth worldwide, hope it does come to pass though
• Because another natural disaster or China or Europe retrenching will have a devastating effect on our economy. Also these predictions (and that's all they are.) from Treasury have been completely wrong the last four times. Cuts to Kiwi-saver are very short sighted this was encouraging Kiwis to save; the government is out of touch and losing credibility amongst voters. More money needs to be spent on developing new industries and refining exports.
• because even though some of the budget isn’t likeable the purpose appears to be to encourage growth and to lower debt
• Because I am not sure where they are getting these figures from
• Because I believe in the National-led government.
• Because I believe they can do it
• Because I don't believe t5hey can do they have broken every other thing they have said they would do and every election promise
• because i live in ch ch and making any jobs down here will be a miracle
• because I live on the east coast(eastland) there are no jobs, I have no faith in these people, if their lips are moving they are lying
• Because I think that they are making progress with the economy in spite of Canterbury and the result of that should also assist to improve the economy
• because I think the government is on the right track
• Because I'm in chch and people & subbies are leaving due to no work
• because immigrants are taking the jobs
• because it could be achievable but i doubt that it will happen
• Because it is all based on TREASUERY forecasts which a notable for being way wrong.
• because it is true and " Pie in the SKY"
• Because it is true that the country is living beyond its means and that austerities need to be made.
• Because it's happen before, and we still have people with no work, or its jobs they are not able to do because they need qualification.
• because John Key is smart
• Because National have broken so many promises and are selling SOEs and I simply don't trust them, or their plans.
• because of new employment opportunities with rebuilding Christchurch
• because of the current economic situation
• Because of the world cup and the Canterbury earthquake
• Because off the Christchurch recovery We here in Gisborne our economic growth was one of the highest after our earthquake
• because people are already struggling just to feed their families and pay for petrol and just making ends meet and maybe not even being able to pay even the most basic of bills.
• Because so far Treasury's predictions have not been accurate!
• Because spending has to be cut.
• Because that’s all it is, a forecast!
• because the budget is too complex
• because the country is now to get moving
• Because the country is struggling too much as it is-where are these jobs going to come from???
  I don't believe economic growth has ever been that good-it's just election year bullshit!
• Because the current government has cut so many jobs since it got in, and gotten itself into masses of debt, I doubt there's anything they can really do except keep laying people off and borrowing money
• Because the economies of the world will get worse not better.
• Because the Government are just trying to hype things up.
• Because the job market isn't going to increase just because the governments says so and they have been saying there will be more jobs for years so it is unrealistic.
• because the planning makes sense
• Because the rural sector is doing very well and will continue doing so for at least two more years.
• Because the world economy is in severe decline and America is on the verge of collapse
• Because the world market has changed due to the financial elite. And because fuel prices will go sky rocketing in the not too distant future. If you read and understand Psalm 83 and recognise that the middle east is going to have a war unlike any other in history you will see that fuel is going to be cut off to the west, The countries surrounding Israel have covenanted together to destroy the land of Israel but in turn will be destroyed themselves. Israel’s primister Bibbi has said Iran cannot become a nuclear power because Islam has vowed to wipe Israel of the map and this would include their own muslem people. This prophecy will be fulfilled within the next couple of years, The best thing NZ can do is to put research into running cars on water (Hydrogen) using high teck pulsed electrolytes, This is available right now but the powers that be do not want to use it due to the revenue streams generated via oil
• Because the world market is on the rise and the government's economic management is sound
• because there are no jobs in my region, and also most manufacturing jobs going overseas
• Because there is a natural push to develop business. The3 only fly in the ointment is the lack of genuine talent in the workforce.
• because there is no money to create new businesses to make available the 170,000 new jobs
• Because there will be a lot of work created in Chch
• Because they are based on treasury figures .when has the treasury been right.
• Because they are freeing up money for it to happen
• because they won’t stimulate growth as much as they say
• Because they've made enough amendments to allow growth to happen
• Because things never go the way they promise!!!
• Because this government doesn't have a clue.
• Because this government hasn't proven good on any promises yet that I see
• Because this is reliant completely on market conditions. There is no government stimulus whatsoever.
• Because to stay in power they will have to offer carrots to different sectors of the voters.
• Because Treasury have been consistently off the mark with their growth forecasts for at least the last three years.
• Because treasury have been wrong every time before, the government are doing nothing to stimulate the economy
• because Treasury predictions are always so wrong i think they get the cleaner to do them
• Because we are at last coming out of a big and long recession, which will require a "catch-up" over the next 5 or so years. It will start slowly but hopefully strengthen over the next 2 years and produce more jobs, in the building and manufacturing sectors.
• Because we will be out of this long recession and people will have more confidence in spending money. I think this would happen on its own as a recession can only last so long.
• Been trying to find work for over year now, and just nothing out there for my qualifications.
• Been unemployed 2 years and don’t see that improving
• Been waiting a long time to see these new jobs the Government have said are coming. I've yet to see any
• big business is going to make up for lost business when things improve by making current workers work harder and longer long before they take on the responsibility of new workers
• Bill English said that large tax cuts for the wealthy would turbo charge the economy in last year's budget but The Governor of the Reserve Bank says they have done nothing of the kind.
• Businesses are struggling and can't afford to take on extra staff
• Can only be guesswork.
• Can't go from 0 to 4% in 1 year.
• Can't see 170,000 being there for the taking
• can't see how they can create that many jobs
• Can't see it happening under the current Government
• Can't see it happening, Chch rebuilding will be too much of a drain to create 4% growth
• Can’t spend what we don't have - so cuts need to be made.
• Canterbury Earthquake
• Canterbury Earthquake Recovery will see more jobs/growth
• Canterbury Earthquake will generate new jobs and we will come out of recession.
• Canterbury rebuild may increase growth.
  Can’t see where the new jobs will come from.
•  
• cause they’re the ones controlling everything and getting this country into debt
• Chch rebuild will drive it
• Christchurch Earthquake recovery will create a lot of new jobs
• Christchurch for a start will create new jobs
• Christchurch is demolished, need to rebuild it.
• Christchurch needs rebuilt and there are lots of people there without jobs
• Christchurch rebuild should give a lot of people work - but I can’t see 170,000 new jobs. However I hope they are right about 4% economic growth. That would be an excellent result
• Christchurch rebuild will need a work force
• Christchurch rebuild will add significant growth
• Clearly something needs to be done.
• Considering that it is an election year.
• Considering the current economic situation, may be a bit too ambitious
• Considering the evidence that I have seen from this government, it is extremely hard to believe that there is going to be that height of success.
• Constant GDP growth requires cheap energy, we're out of that
• Construction jobs to repair Chch will appear, but nothing suggests more, or long lasting.
• continuing hand-outs for student loans, working for families, reduced tax income from power coys that have a partial sell off and giving to " add on parties", act, united future and Maori.
• COS WE DON'T HAVE ANY INDUSTRIAL SET UP. FULLY DEPENDANT ON IMPORT WHICH IS AFFECTED GLOBALLY BY THE EXPORT POLICIES OF OTHER COUNTRIES.
• Cost of living for families is sky high without taxing kiwi saver and cutting govt. contributions. So far they have not filled any promises so why now.
• Create them where??? Doing what? If they are forcing the state sector to operate on 330+ million less per year on top of the already slashed budgets, there will be even more public servants on the dole, FEWER jobs to go around, no salaries means little tax and next to nil spending from those who lose their jobs, dole = even MORE drain on the system.
• creating new jobs usually means basic back to work programs run by local councils and other groups - not really jobs for development, promotion hell who are they trying to kid
• Crystal ball gazing is not my thing.
• Cuts needed but are the predictions accurate?
• Cuts to the state sector will result in jobs being lost not created.
• cutting gov jobs is putting people on the dole, and playing with kiwi saver grrrrrrrrrr, glad i am on a pension
• Cutting spending NEVER helps to create jobs. they are trying to do the same things that wrecked the economy in the 80's and expecting different results
• Cutting things does not make things grow.
• Dependant on too many uncertainties
• Depends on export prices staying high. No apparent consideration of hikes in oil costs, leaky homes costs.
• depends on many other factors
• depends on the world economic climate and our confidence in the growth of our economy
• Depends whether employers take on extra staff now that they have to put more in Kiwi Saver
• Despite past measures of a similar type nothing has changed in economic growth and new jobs
• Difficult to create based on the present economic base of NZ and the lack of large scale enterprises to have such number of jobs available.
• Difficult to see how this can be done. However, if it can be done it will elevate the standing of this Government who have, I believe the nous to see it through.
• Do not think government policy alone can affect the economic growth that simply
• Do not want state assets sold ... they said they would not and now they using budget as an excuse.
• Do they use rose tinted glasses when they look at the crystal ball?
• does not seem possible, other than rebuilding chch
• Does the government ever get their forecasts right?!
• don’t believe they can do it
• Don't foresee growth
• Don't have a crystal ball
• don't have enough knowledge of the wider economy
• Don’t know enough about it.
• Don't know enough to say if forecasts are based on real assumptions or woolly. Also how will jobs be generated - for what skill set?
• don’t know if it will be possible but you never know
• Don't know much about it
• Due to the Christchurch earthquake there will be a lot of growth
• Due to the track record of the current government (which has overseen the sustained decline in employment levels) I am sceptical that they will deliver on the job creation projection. I also have not seen any indication of where these jobs will come from in the current budget. The economic growth projection seems ambitious at best, and unlikely to be achieved within the year from now.
• dunno
• earthquake in Chch will generate a lot of jobs
• earthquake rebuild
• earthquake recovery will generate new jobs and boost local trade
• Earthquakes help, but as the economy strengthens jobs are created anyway.
• Economic debt will shrink, but how much pressure and debt will individual NZers be under? Especially with prices going up and KiwiSaver payments going up for the recipients.
• Economic growth for a country that has been experiencing little or no growth over the past 2 years is overly optimistic!
• Economic growth in theory should generate more jobs
• Economic growth is more likely to be zero - the Government have spent money like it was going out of fashion and left the country severely in the red. No one in their right mind would borrow to give the top echelon a tax break. National also wants to sell the few state owned enterprises left. Creation of that many jobs is totally unlikely - there may be several building personnel employed short term in the repair of Christchurch. A large proportion of jobs have been allowed to go to China thus forcing the lower paid workers into unemployment. Also small employers who have to pay more to workers' Kiwi-Saver accounts, as well as being taxed on these contributions, will more than likely cause the employer to lay off more employees.
• Economic growth really slow and almost still in recession
• Economic growth short term due to re-insurance money coming in & presuming high commodity prices. Nothing in budget to stimulate job growth
• Economic growth will be stunted by the after effects of the Christchurch earthquakes.
• Economic indicators show that jobs have already become to re-emerge
• Economically we are no further ahead now than 12 months ago. They are proposing government job cuts which will increase the % of unemployed. They have legislated Tradesman so any of the 'older tradesmen' won’t go to Chch and therefore their work will diminish. They need to get real!
• Economy appears to be on the upswing
• Economy needs to go up sometime.
• Economy starting to pick up but not at a fast rate
• Errr where are these jobs going to crop up from?
• Evident from the past forecasts.
• Exactly that, they are only assumptions. How do they come up with these statistics and where is the proof in this forecast?
• Exceed past performance by too great an amount. Only way to achieve this is open the door to migrants.
• Expert reviews that I've seen
• Export returns, the Christchurch billions, need for construction and trades workers, inevitable confidence and growth of SMEs and workers in SMEs
• External factors currently in our favour.
• failure to deliver so far on election promises
• Farming is doing well, Christchurch rebuild will create jobs.
• Firstly, I think the Govt. forecast 4% in 2013 not 2012? I think growth will be around this mark in one-two years mainly due to the amount of reconstruction in Ch'Church, plus the fact that interest rates look to be remaining lowish in the next year or two, encouraging some tentative borrowing by companies to upgrade equipment/machinery and increase efficiency.
• Folk generally need to get more enthusiastic & positive about growth
• For a start, the public service expects to lose a lot of jobs. People will have less money to spend, so hospitality jobs will be cut.
  Apart from the CHCH rebuild there will be no new jobs that I can see.
• For the numbers to be realistic there would have to be funding of innovation, research and product development. Also any growth will come from small and medium sized businesses increasing their workforce and exporting more. There is nothing in the budget for these small and medium sized businesses and they are not helped at all to export more.
• forecasts are unreliable
• Forecasting economic growth is like forecasting the weather, the further away you go, the more inaccurate - so I would say I really don't know.
• Forecasts are in line with predictions from other sources
• Four years is a long time, and once the rebuilding of Christchurch starts happening, there will be a huge workforce required down there which will take at least 4 years to complete. Interest rates also have a bearing on the growth and if we don't see a lifting in the Reserve Bank rate for another 6 months, this can only be good for NZ people.
• from past growth figures
• From what I know they haven't put any extra money into creating jobs and have made tighter conditions to borrow money for studying. That says to me less people will be able to study making it harder to get jobs. Also with no money put into creating jobs or giving extra help to find jobs I really don't see this happening at all.
• From where I sit there is nothing to suggest that jobs will increase by this amount - it still looks like a recession to me. However, I have little knowledge of economics so it is an uninformed opinion
• General upward trend.
• General world economic conditions are not forecast to improve and the govt has not shown any initiatives to create new locally based jobs, so I think this is just rhetoric, not based on any dependable statistics or forecasts
• Give it some time and we will recover from the recession. Therefore things will improve and making way for more jobs in the future.
• Given that the world economy is still in a state of unrest, we in NZ cannot expect to have stability and growth for a little while yet
• Global economy is not good and the cutting government expenditure is a robbing Peter to pay Paul answer ... This will reduce money in the economy which will reduce people spending and so the economy will spiral down not up.
• Go back through history, National always says that after an election we will get great growth, look at history it never happened with National policies. What happened to "The Brighter future" after the 2008 election!!! What a joke they are.
• Goes not follow historical trends
• going by the previous form
• Going on past efforts I find it hard to believe that many jobs will be created.
• good plan
• Government depts are shedding staff; private businesses are not employing extra staff, government policies not conducive to setting up of businesses like Australia.
• Government forecasts don't actually translate to any tangible action plans put forward by the government to either grow jobs or the economy. The job growth will be offshore (Australia) simply because the average New Zealander just cannot make ends meet any longer. The burgeoning "welfare" budget isn't getting any smaller; taxes are not being spent on real (non public service) job creation; the justice system is unjust and tax payers are extremely disillusioned; in essence they have lost the will to stick it out. Without increased spending power; consumerism will not grow but contract, forcing even more employers to cut staff. There is precisely zero reason for any optimism; and it doesn't matter whether it's National or Labour - they're all clueless.
• Government has not relaxed the economy
• Governments say lots of things and to be honest I don’t really know what to believe any more
• Govt has many forecasters better than me but something will go wrong along the way so only realistic
• govt is only predicting future how can we trust them
• Govt wants to cut so much money from public sector, everyone is poorer and moving to Australia in record numbers.
• Govt wants to sound optimistic and the Chch quake will indeed create some new jobs however there is also a presumption that growth will occur and I'm not convinced about that
• govts have done very little to date
• Great to see the likelihood of new jobs being created over the next 4 years, but what about those (mainly in Government jobs) who are also going to be laid off - why not also at least keep them in their jobs rather than adding further to the unemployment queue at a time like this?
• Growth and employment in which industry. The only likely growth industry will be the building sector, with the rebuilding of Christchurch. These skills are not available due to lose of trades staff to Aus.
• Growth can't go on forever, it's like a balloon, once it's filled with air and one continues to put air in, it'll pop.
• Growth estimate wildly over optimistic. Haven’t had that sort of growth for decades. Selling assets certainly won't create jobs. If savings of $980m are made to Govt spending there will have to be job losses i.e. unemployment which will need to be taken up presumably in the 170k. What are the 'new initiatives'?
• Growth has not been anywhere near that and 170k new jobs is being far too excessive when nothing like that has been in the past.
  We are still in a recession.
• Growth seems to be their main motivator
• Growth should be boosted by earthquake recovery and continuing growth in the dairy export sector. Tourism will be a big earner following the world cup.
• growth, both in GDP and in jobs, at this level would be at the upper end of NZ historical experience
• gut feeling
• gut feeling -that is a high quota -clarification -the 4% may be attainable but not the 170,000 new jobs (that is real full time jobs....i believe the governments interpretation of a "job" is that any one working 30 hours or more per week
• Hard to believe what govt says at best of times. Re new jobs: when it happens, it will be believable! If it hasn't happened already to some extent, it very likely won't happen that so many jobs will be created.
• hard to predict the future
• Hasn't happened previously
• Have heard it all before!
• Have to have some faith in the experts that the forecast is reasonable. Given growth that will come out of farming sector and re-building Christchurch as well as the growth I am seeing in my industry looks ok
• Haven't seen any evidence in this growth to date
• Healthy growth in the dairy & agriculture industries plus stimulus from rebuilding Christchurch.
• Heard it all before. 170,000 new jobs? And how will they manage that and what jobs will they be? Can't all be builders etc in Christchurch.
• Heard it all before. Never happens
• he’s dreaming
• Historically NZ growth rate has been below that and there is nothing in the budget to create jobs in fact there is plenty that will LOSE jobs
• Historically, job creation by the government is an interesting myth - also, why tout 'job creation' on one hand, and deliberately reduce jobs available in the public sector? Not even a zero sum statistic, I suspect, let alone one showing positive growth.
• Hopefully the world recession is in decline and there will be modest growth over the next few years
• Hopefully they can. chch situation will help
• How can i create jobs when there is no money?
• how can it create jobs when so many jobs are being lost now where are all those people going to work now and it will just affect other things which will result in job losses which in some ways will just mean more people will have no money need help or so much more crime.
• How can the create on average 817 new jobs per week every week for the next 4 years it sounds great but sounds very unrealistic
• How can they create new jobs when they are talking about hacking jobs in the state sector, companies in Christchurch cannot re employ workers until their premises are safe. If they sell state assets this will not create jobs it will probably send work to call centres overseas. Or perhaps they are thinking of dropping wages so that we might compare with wages in China and the Philippines.
• How can they say the amount of jobs available will grow when they are making people redundant themselves.
• How do they expect to increase economic growth while reducing the amount of money individuals have to spend. Without consumers the economy cannot grow
• How do you create 170,000 new jobs ?
• How do you create new jobs, when employers are struggling to keep businesses running due to the fact that most kiwis haven't got much extra money to spend on discretionary items. How do you pull jobs out of thin air??
• How is he going to produce all these jobs? Rebuilding CH>CH> will employ some but mostly tradesmen.
  It's a case of robbing Peter to pay Paul and as usual the underdog will be the loser.
• How on earth are they going to create more jobs???????
• How will they do this. no plans announced
• How would they know? can't foresee the future - they're just trying to say something positive, the budget won't deliver this - other factors like global economy influence this not one budget
• hum
• I am 57 years of age and have just been made redundant. I have little confidence in me getting a proper job here in Hawkes bay let alone in elsewhere in NZ with all the cut backs happening in the public sector, People need to work so more people will be out there job hunting and people over 55 are at the bottom of the heap.
• I am just not sure where the jobs are coming from except the rebuild of Christchurch. What is going to happen to get economic growth at 4% that hasn't happened already, or at least started to happen?
• I am not an economist so have to believe maybe what I have been told
• I am not sure where the new jobs will come from, I know there will be a certain amount of new jobs that will be needed due to the Christchurch earthquake. However John Key is not in parliament to collect a pay check and from what i understand he is a very good businessman so they must have some plan to increase jobs
• I am optimistic about the economy - call it women's intuition.
• I am public servant - there have been so many job losses already. I cannot see how this will create more jobs.
• I am sitting on the fence because I can't quite see this happening,
• I am unsure about anything to do with politics
• I assume they have figures to prove their predictions, but no one can really predict the future.
• I believe in the figures, not so much in job creation but un the growth rate being low enough to be sustainable
• I believe in this government and feel positive in what it's trying to achieve.
• I believe it is difficult to accurately forecast things such as economic growth with accuracy. Reality has very rarely matched Treasury forecasts in the last few years. It is dangerous to base the budget on these assumptions holding true.
• I believe them
• I believe we may see growth - just not sure if it will be 4%
• I cannot see that it will make any difference.
• I cannot see how so many new jobs can be created.
• i cannot see into the future
• I cannot see that many new jobs being created or enough New Zealanders energetic enough to get off their arse to do them. We are a country of bludgers
• I can't find a job at the moment - just how are they going to create that many more???
• I can't see any justification for those figures and economic forecasts historically have an abysmal track record for accuracy. It sounds like they have just pulled some numbers out of nowhere that they think will sound good to the public.
• I can't see that any action proposed by the Government over the next few years will contribute to even this modest level of growth
• I can't see where they are going to find 170.000 new jobs until they start doing something to keep manufacturing in NZ.
• I can't see where they got these figures from, what proof have they got that this will happen?
• i cant visualise that many jobs being created
• I do not believe that the economy will grow at the rate the Government predicts; in fact I believe it will decline still further over the next 3 years.
• I do not have enough information to answer any other way.
• I do not have much faith in what they say. It will not be easy.
• I do not have sufficient information to make an opinion one way or the other. If a lot more money is going into Christchurch recovery then that could stimulate the economy, but what if commodity prices fall? There are too many variables.
• I do not think growth will be so high
• I do think economic growth is possible but I consider 170,000 jobs to be an impossible goal to achieve.
• I don't believe anything National says. They haven't got it right so far, so why should I believe they will get it right now. It's all just saying what they think we want to hear and they won't follow through.
• I don't believe anything the politicians say to justify their budget decisions
• I don't believe in fairy tales
• I don't believe it, I think the outlook for new jobs is very bleak
• I don't believe that simply cutting spending will lead to economic growth. I also believe things like selling assets to address debt in the short term is short sighted.
• I don’t believe the economy will start growing for some time and can’t see where the 170000 new jobs will be created.
• I DON'T BELIEVE THEM
• I don't believe this can be achieved in 12 months or less
• I don't know enough about how they run the country, but as all politicians keep changing their story, I doubt these forecasts will happen
• I don't know much about economics.
• I don't know where all the jobs will be coming from
• i don’t know where the jobs are going to come from
• I don’t ready care because they don’t ready care what NZ people said, one solution is decrease there salary minsters also prime minster that will save 50% of the tax money, and also paid their own expenses if they travel internationally .
• I don't recall ANY government achieving these sort of ambitious goals.
• I don't see any potential for it at the moment.
• i don’t see anything in the budget to back up these claims
• I don't see how they can create 170,000 jobs - unless they are all rebuilding Chch - not really very practical for people living elsewhere.
• I don't see the job market improving to give that many jobs to people
• I don’t think anyone can predict what the future holds
• I don't think growth will be that high.
• I don’t think that the figures stack up
• i don’t think the economy will grow so quickly
• I don't think the economy will rebound that quickly
• I don't think the government has a clue on how to right the economy.
  There are - just, no jobs now for the majority of jobseekers.
• I don't think the world economy will "be there" for NZ to expand.
• I don’t think we have seen the last of the recession yet.
• I don't think will happen, is already for many people to find jobs
• I don't trust a government that goes back on its promises
• I don't trust Treasury advice.
• i don't understand all the gobbledegook
• I don’t understand how the Govt can sell shares to us when we already own the assets. Why did they borrow for the tax cuts for the rich? Tax cuts would have been more beneficial to the low income. Why should low income people pay for High incomes tax breaks. I hope they are right about 170,000 new jobs. The question I ask is what sort of jobs will they generate?
• I don’t understand the dynamics involved.
• I don't understand where these 170,000 jobs will come from, especially with the cutbacks in the public sector.
• I feel it is just spin to try and get the budget accepted by the people as necessary - I feel there is no way of telling if these figures can be met
• I feel that that the amount of new jobs mentioned is too high, probably half that amount
• I feel that if there are no jobs available now where are the jobs going to come from .
• I felt I am losing my job soon and unable to find one, moving to AU soon
• I find the whole thing pretty confusing. They say things but then just reneg or change direction whenever they like. I’m not savvy enough to see through the bs.
• I guess if the figures marry up then its' a reasonable expectation
• I have a background in industrial economics.
• I have confidence in John Key's leadership and the economic policy and knowledge held by the current National Government.
• I have faith in our present Government and am assured that what they say is correct.
• I have no faith in the economic forecasts for economic growth. With most basic items costing more Kiwis will have less capacity to spend money. The majority of New Zealanders are no longer prepared to book stuff up on credit and are having major debt issues. In order for there to be economic growth, NZers need to have the money AND the incentive to purchase. Most are having trouble putting food on the table and petrol in the tank and heat in winter - there is no incentive to spend so they won't, hence no economic growth.
• I have no faith in this government being competent in this happening.
• I have no method to predict growth
• I have no way to gauge this.
• I have not been shown any evidence to back up this statement
• I have not studied Economics or Business Management so I have no clue how realistic it is. However I would hope the government has studied this.
• I have seen no economic indicators that support 4% economic growth. I think this is magical thinking with no hope of succeeding.
• I haven't all the facts to be able to work it out.
• I haven't really sensed that the economy is picking up
• I haven't seen where or from whom they will be generated - has the media asked these questions ?
• I hope that people get in behind the Government and start workin forwards to making this happen and pull together as a nation to ensure its economic viability.
• I just cannot see how these measures alone will get our debt back on track within a 5 year time span .. And what level of borrowing is assumed over this next 5 years, on to of what we owe already ..
• I just can't see it happen.. I think if national gets back in New Zealand is even going to be worse off than now.
• I just can't see it happening
• I just don't think 170,000 NEW jobs is realistic, especially when there will probably be layoffs from government departments in the state sector "savings".
• I just don't think there will be the jobs they are saying
• I like to have faith in the government and I think that creating more jobs will be better for the country then not
• I like to think they can, but I don't believe it’s possible.
• I like what the national party is doing. I always voted labour in the past but i am very pleased with what john key and his party is up to. as an aside the labour party is only bleating and no step forward initiative is being stated only bleating
• I listen to the Morning report gurus and they are all sceptical. So am I.
• I need more details. How are they expecting there to be an economic growth , where are they getting there facts from. There may be some truth in the forecast but I need more evidence to make an opinion on that. Also where are these 170,000 new jobs coming from what sector and how does coming out of a recession create so many jobs ? I need more details to give a clear answer . It’s like looking through a crystal ball asking that type of question !
• I probably haven't read enough to make really informed choice here. I would like to think it is realistic, but I feel uninformed at the present.
• I realise the Ch. Ch. Earthquake has made a huge hole in the Government funds, but the budget will make some people poorer other than this, it doesn’t affect me that much one way or the other
• I really don't think the beaurocrats sitting in their offices in the city really know what is going on out in the wider community
• I see nothing being done to encourage growth of production or employment.
• I see too much uncertainty in the manufacturing sector.
• I simply cannot believe that this country has the current capability of creating an average 42,500 jobs per year in this time. We are still laying-off people, especially in the public sector. Naturally we would all be overjoyed if 170,000 new jobs could be created, but I need some sort of actual proof in order to believe this is possible.
• I still think the recession is with us and will take another 2 years to balance out. Also I think we need to invest in Technology and Science...these industries should be our big growth areas in the next few years.
• I think a lot of this will depend on the world’s economic growth
• I think all governments tend to be optimistic. Growth will not be that high but jobs will be because of the Christchurch reconstruction. However, the Christchurch jobs will be in the building trades and will not last. What is needed is high value, high quality jobs that generate lots of revenue every year.
• I think because they have to make it happen to actually find out.
• I think everybody is realising we need to make changes.
• I think it is too early to know how the economy will grow in the next few months...
• I think it's just a number they've chosen without foundation.
• i think it’s more hopeful they can’t tell when another earthquake or tsunami will hit or what the world finance will do
• I think our economy is well beyond fixing. No matter what they do, it will always be more flattering to the rich, so families suffer. Our economy is also very dependent on the world so whatever happens to them happens to us.
• I think that jobs will be created by the reconstruction of CHCH but in other areas employers may not take on more staff if Kiwi saver is going to cost them more. Also it will take a while for the money to flow through the system
• I think that most of the job growth will be the vacancies created by those emigrating to Australia
• I think that the new jobs may be reduced by companies still closing down due to recession and Christchurch earthquake aftermath. Therefore it is not a realistic number
• I think that there is room for new jobs if the country does more to promote added value to our exports instead of jis exporting raw materials
• I think that things are slowly on the improve so therefore the economy should now start to pick up
• I think the Christchurch rebuild will refresh the economy
• I think the Government are all talk. Until Christchurch is up and running and contributing to the economy growth will be minimal.
• I think the Govt is doing things right at the moment and because of that I think their forecasts are realistic
• i think the national government have a good handle on economics
• I think the rebuild in Canterbury will generate jobs but then what about all the ones out of work from the quake ?
• I think the recovery will be a bit slower than they hope
• I think there will be new jobs over the next 4 years but saying this budget will create them is a stretch.
• I think there's too much assumption that employment created in Canterbury will remain after the rebuild and the growth of 4% is too optimistic
• I think they could have gone further but it’s a start and there is the real possibility it’s achievable.
• I think they should be concentrating on the "rich" people and also the politicians could cut back on their spending.
• I think they're on the right track with the measures they intend to bring in
• I think this is optimistic but not impossible
• I think we are in a worse state than we know
• I think with decreased national debt the country will be a more prosperous place to live and more money will be generated, and from that more jobs
• I think with the right direction nz could achieve that goal
• I trust John Keys government
• I trust the budget and I believe this is the best way forward for New Zealand to cut debt and generate more wealth, and create more jobs for kiwis
• I trust them
• I want to be positive and realistic but Just can't see it happening that fast and that much
• I will wait and see if this happens
• I work in the employment market and opportunities for those unemployed are not improving. taxing employers for their kiwi saver contributions will further reduce this
• I would like to think they can create 170,000 more jobs , but feel it is really only swapping dole for jobs (working for the dole)
• I would hope that that it happens but outside influences may blunt the targets.
• I would like to believe it but think it may be a bit optimistic
• I'd like to know where the growth is to come from.
• I'd like to think Keys knows what he is talking about but I don't follow politics closely
• I'd love to know where they are going to pull 170,000 new jobs from when they are pulling back money from every employer with the reduction in KiwiSaver.
• If interest rates can be held at low levels, business will be encouraged to plan and employ. High interest rates will just kill it again.
• if it was that easy they would have done it already
• If it was that easy, it would have been done before now.
• If people have less money to spend then there is unlikely to be an increase in economic growth. I can't see that jobs will suddenly appear out of thin air if all businesses are being hit hard - if they miraculously do appear then the increase in economic growth may be more realistic.
• If they are cutting jobs. What are they going to do to create 170,000 new ones?
• If they are cutting state services budgets, jobs will go.
• If they are going to make cuts in existing expenditure then surely jobs must go and these people will be in the jobs queues or "made" to take redundancy or early retirement.
• If they are really going to save that much maybe it is possible.
• If they continue with the idea of mining the land and sea, selling off our state assets and raising gst, etc; they more likely get us out of debt a bit quicker but i can't see them creating that many jobs, not even from those things already listed. Otherwise very unrealistic especially when they won't be in power after November’s elections!
• If they have as they say they have, been creating 35,000 jobs a year, then it is realistic
• If they send some of the unemployed down to Christchurch Napier and Hastings and get them out there working for their money and maybe they could also end up getting a job. If they were working alongside some tradesman who then saw they worth hiring.
  
  We are so short of skilled trades men now, it is so difficult to get sparkeys, plumbers etc and they charge like wounded bulls, they have so little competition. I know people who have children who don’t want to work in IT or sit behind desks they want to do the manual work. Why are we not setting up schools and giving them the opportunity and once they have the basics pay the employer to take them on. They used to do this what ever happened to the scheme.! Not all boys and girls want to sit in an office all day.
• If they think they can create 170,000 jobs why have they not already done so?. Instead they are reducing employment in the Public Services.
• If we see the economic growth then we will see more consumer spending which inevitably leads to job growth. That’s the way I look at it.
• I'll believe it when i see it
• I'm an optimist
• I’m in no position to predict the future or control it but will give them the benefit of doubt
• I'm just not sure where these jobs are going to come from.
• I'm not an economist nor have any academic background on these matter. The National government has been promising a us the moon and the stars and they, of course, remained as promises. Unless I could experience, feel and see the growth they're talking about, I still remain as sceptic.
• I'm not an economist.
• I'm not really sure how this works - but it sounds good in theory
• I'm not sure that we are ready to get over the financial recession yet. People are scared to take risks, & to invest. I think it might take a little longer, although the Christchurch Earthquake will probably create jobs in the construction area.
• I'm not very good with figures and though there may be more jobs, will our workforce and education be higher quality for employers who are seeking skilled people. It's okay to create jobs but 170,000 new jobs is just another way of saying, more jobs for the same pay or lower wages...
• I'm unsure as where the 170,000 new jobs are coming from and think the 4% economic growth is a little bit unrealistic.
• I’m unsure where the new jobs will be coming from. i have also heard that the govt is going to be cutting back on public servant jobs so this will potentially increase unemployment with more people fighting for less jobs
• In election years forecasts by the incumbents always prove to be optimistic to be polite.
• In my opinion it will only affect people who are on KiwiSaver and Working for Families. However, if new jobs are created, I will support it. Furthermore, if economic growth is achieved, it will help New Zealand to grow even more, hopefully become almost like Australia.
• In the last 6 - 7 years the economy only produced 82k in new jobs. 170k is unrealistic. 4% growth may be possible, but The Treasury does not have a good record in forecasting growth - they have been wrong in the last 3 - to - 4 years.
• Infrastructure rebuilding in Christchurch alone will create hundreds of skilled, semi-skilled and unskilled jobs. This rebuilding should start late 2011.
• Interest rates are low and staying low, farm income is rising and a huge amount of activity will be generated by the Christchurch rebuild. The World Cup will help at the margin.
• Is all pie in the sky..
• is slower growth than the OECD, RNZ forecast
• It all depends on the OCR and business confidence and export prices for our main exporters
• It assumes everything will go to plan economically and more often than not they don't.
• It can and cannot happen. We are already going through recession and these forecasts does not seem to be real
• It can be achieved
• it can’t be realistic to forecast anything can happen as we have seen with the earthquakes and floods
• It depends on a lot of factors. More natural disasters? World economy?
• It didn't happen in the past 3 years what makes the government think it will happen in the next 4 years, the government whoever it is will say anything for votes, let’s be realistic
• It is a big call and ambitious goal, so will need favourable global financial conditions to succeed.
• It is a forecast, anything can happen!!!
• It is a guess and I cannot see where the growth will come from.
• It is based on Treasury predictions which have not previously eventuated
• It is completely in contrast to the economic reality of the day. There is nothing to indicate it will start to improve.
• It is fantasy land stuff
• It is hard to say if it’s achievable but i do believe there is chance for economy to improve.
• It is so difficult to forecast what may happen. For instance, the Christchurch earthquakes have had a big impact on the economy.
• It is the usual National Party way. Abolish and/or destroy everything good that Labour set up, borrow to the hilt as an excuse to sell state assets which merely kills the goose that lays the golden egg.
• It is too difficult to forecast
• It just has disaster written all over it, especially if they sell our assets.
• It just will not happen - more spin from the right . . .
• It just won’t happen
• It makes sense
• it seems achievable given the current economic challenges in the nz economy
• It seems far too much in a worldwide depressed economy period.
• It seems like a very large number.
• It seems optimistic to me, but not unachievable
• It seems very optimistic. Good luck to them if they achieve it
• It sounds good in theory only. Not enough detail to make predictions such as these.
• it sounds as if a lot of thought has been put into it, but can we trust a National Party, I do not think so
• It will be just an exercise in manipulating numbers that will show what it wants the public to see as all governments have done in the past. If the government is looking to cut back which is sensible so will the majority of private sector see that as a cue to do the same. It is going to take some dynamic policies and dynamic private business individuals to kick start economic growth that the government is speculating will occur over the next four years.
• It will depend on whether the jobs are being created from new or expanding business or are just more public sector paper pusher jobs.
• It will take longer to come out of recession and pay off the countries debit.
• It won’t happen that fast, people are hurting
• It’s a plan that seems likely to work
• It’s all been said before and never come to fruition
• It's all guess work really but I would certainly hope that at least that many jobs are created. I think 4% is not too little or too much.
• It’s been said before countless times but never achieved. The jobs might be realistic during the Christchurch rebuild and in other areas but whether that’s permanent is a matter of debate
• its BS even treasury disagree
• It's guessing history. Who knows what will happen globally in the next few years. It's a wait and see situation.
• It's had 3 years to improve things, without success. Being an election year means they promise miracles they clearly can't deliver.
• It's hard enough that we're struggling to look for jobs now. That's a tough order of assumptions and very unrealistic. The government should be putting more time into creating more jobs now than leaving it over the next 4 years. These are hard time now.
• it’s hard to get a job now
• It’s hard to tell as to how things will ACTUALLY pan out.
• It's just not realistic
• It's never happened before
• IT's proven taking from the poor is very negative and counter productive
• It’s really simple .... People are still very cautious about spending... prices are rising ... companies simply cannot afford to increase their labour force while sales are down.
• It’s too hard to predict the future
• it's too rapid a turnaround
• It's wishful thinking, not based on any evidence and takes no account of unexpected external macro-economic influences
• Job creation will be temporary & then unemployment will rise.
• Job market is now improving compared to start of this year
• jobs are getting lost day by day how can it grow
• JOBS ARE HARD TO COME BY AT THE MOMENT SO HOW ARE THEY GOING TO CREATE THEM
• John Key and Co. are running the country like a business, would puts a bit more realism to predictions, budgets and decisions made. Rather than what was being done by the previous government
• John Key is a go get PM and wouldn't want to lead a no -hoper nation.
• john key is all shit
• John key is cutting state housing us in Christchurch have nowhere to live, Christchurch is dead
• john key is honest
• John Key is useless liar.
• just an opinion
• just can't see it
• Just don't think it will happen the way the economy has been heading.
• Just from the outcome from the last budget
• Just in Canterbury we are going to have a lot of rebuilding going on which will require lots more workers.
• Just is
• Just look at the record of the National government. I think at best it will be static
• Just not sure where the jobs are supposed to come from.
• Just on past promises made by previous governments.. Yeah, right !!
• just the way things are
• kits all bullshit
• Labour pumped money into the government sector to stimulate the economy. There are no plans by Nats at all!
• Lack of compelling evidence to substantiate claims of achieving these goals of economic growth (4% increase over 12 plus months) and creation of 170,000 new jobs over the next 4 years. Rebuilding Christchurch will not provide that number of jobs and there are huge numbers of young people emerging from secondary and tertiary educational institutions every year. Where are the extra jobs to come from? Sorry just can't see any convincing proof when retail and manufacturing establishments, as well as the hospitality industry are already finding it difficult to survive.. Things are very tough for small business operators and the larger companies choose to manufacture offshore where there is no protection of workers' conditions of employment or fair wages. We need to stimulate our own economy by encouraging support for New Zealand grown and produced. Personally, I avoid purchasing anything that is made overseas - especially foodstuffs. Why buy Watties Frozen Spinach that is produced and packaged in USA?
• lack of funds
• living in chch it’s hard to see at the moment that many new jobs will be created
• Logging trucks everywhere, contractors busy, record dairy pay-outs, low taxes, my job booming, everything looks good from here
• Look around you.
• Look at the current situation now...if that can’t make progress now what difference is the next 4 years going to make
• lots of outside factors
• Makes sense
• Many assumptions here that may not pan out. Growth does depend on spending
• Many jobs will created by the natural disaster in Chch...Looking at the global scene we could very well have more of these natural disasters over the next 4 years so, 'bang' goes economic growth!!!
• More and more people are losing their jobs.
• More costs on small businesses, they are closing down, the government are laying people off. All this adds to the debt burden for the government as more people are relying on benefits to survive. Cutting KiwiSaver (yet another incentive for people to save for retirement and the government are not happy to leave it alone). All I can say is the budget will make the rich richer and the middle man poorer and the poor being paid benefits - compliments of the middle man. If you retire you should seriously think about becoming a politician - the job comes with countless benefits including a great retirement fund that they don't seem to touch - we as tax payers are paying yet again no wonder pensioners are having to keep working to live.
• More growth in jobs makes things easier for the lower income people.
• More people will need to access welfare
• Most budget savings are phased in over time (3-4 years) and are dependent upon election returning National as government. A new mix of coalition partners might change budgeted items. I can't see how 170000 new jobs will be created when the public service will be shedding jobs to meet their new budget lines. Also, WINZ are going to be pushing more sickness beneficiaries and DPB back into workforce, these will keep unemployment rates up.
• Most businesses continue to move offshore, the only jobs i can see being created in the current economic climate are those arising from the rebuild of Christchurch city.
• Most of this depends on the success of the Chch re-build and getting it underway very quickly. Not seeing signs of that right now.
• must st0p spending
• n/a
• Need to see it to believe it.
  EVERY government for years and years has promised these things - to date none have succeeded.
• Neither Treasury nor the IRD agree with the figures. This is a contractionary budget. It will not create jobs. Mine is lost already as part of the reduction in the state sector.
• New jobs by whom? They are cutting government jobs.
• next year is not that far away and there is no new initiatives started or incentives to start working, our resources are diminishing fast and food will soon be a priority, money can’t be eaten or taken with you when you die, so its value will be little, as the earth gets abused, and why don’t the politicians take a reduction in wages and give their bit to help the country, not just by crippling it more, and why, just to get rid of the indigenous Maori. Trying to drive us out or into to prison. Sad situation
• Nobody knows, if there was another disaster we would be in a proper mess.
• no description on how they can achieve the target, great 170.000 but laying off workers is a contradiction
• No employment now for many, the trickle down don't work. Where are the 30 th jobs from Key's cycle way?
• No evidence shown where these 170,000 jobs coming from
• no existing evidence to suggest the govt can create jobs
• No faith in governments predictions
• no incentive
• No indication of where the jobs would come from was given, with the exception of repairing Christchurch and we are not yet convincingly through the current recession.
• No information to back up rather airy fairy ideas typical of politicians. Obviously hoping to improve their position for the next election. Good try fellas but I don't buy it!
• No investment into education, training or the R and D to create these jobs.
• no one knows what is going to happen, another couple of natural disasters and economic growth will go out the window
• No one really knows, economists are always wrong, they are modern day witchdoctors.
• no one seems to know where the jobs will come from it sounds like English just plucked number out of the air
• No particular strategies in place to provide that growth or new jobs. All the signs are that the economy is still very tight, and few new jobs will be available.
• no plan
• no real evidence to support growth forecast
• No track record of a National-led government ever achieving this.
• no track record to achieve these projections
• Nobody can foretell the future. The earthquakes have still yet to stop.
• Nobody can predict the future with certainty.
• None of its initiatives have worked towards increasing jobs
• none of the government plans will create new jobs and employers will be paying more for KiwiSaver plus economy still poor
• No-one knows what will happen in that time. Another devastating earthquake could occur somewhere in NZ - heaven forbid! Work with what can't change.
• Not clear where these jobs are coming from, especially with the sale of assets which could see more off shore developments eg in call centres.
• not enough money being saved from taxes, and numbers to increase exceeds present job situation
• Not interested. I mean whatever they come up with, all should comply so we just have to accept it.
• Not knowing as four years is a very long time.
• Not knowledgeable enough.
• Not much more the Government can do
• not sure
• not sure before government would not change
• Not sure give that we are in a recession still whether it is practical. With re-building in Christchurch that is required we may see an increase but whether it is sustainable is the question.
• not sure how things will work out if something major happens and affects NZ economy, such as natural disasters which could again see much money being spent on redevelopment efforts as well as other unforeseen situations....not too sure though
• Not sure if it will happen
• Not sure where the new jobs will be created and at what level.
• not sure whether this is achievable
• not that confident re 4% growth
• Nothing came of the job promises in the past, why should we believe them now?
• Nothing in the budget affects me directly.
• Nothing in the budget tells me how this is going to happen. All I can see is a further hollowing out of the economy.
• Nothing is certain these days (except death and taxes) we had the economic meltdown a while ago who would have predicted that, Europe is in a total financial mess I just cannot see a 4% growth
• Nothing was provided to support small business to grow, and they are cutting jobs from the public sector so where did they think the jobs were going to come from?
• NZ is beginning to recover from recession that started early 2008. Australia is growing faster than NZ projections
• NZ is in an almost point of no return as far as debt is concerned
• Obviously I don't have the facts that the government has based these predictions on nor the expertise that one hopes the producers of the budget have!
• On current trends seems hard to achieve.
• optimistic given current unemployment etc
• Other factors are likely to influence it
• Our dairy products will keep the countries balance of payments better than most.
• Our economy has its ups and downs, but the rebuilding of Christchurch will create more jobs.
• past records and nature of budget and NZ spending saving behaviour
• People will be even more financially stressed now than before and wont still spend so how on earth can that create more jobs !!!!!! I doubt very much that anything will be better jobwise over 4 years.
• Pie in the sky
• pie in the sky stuff to make things sound good
• Politicians these days, don't know what honesty truly means. They make promises that they don't always keep.
• Poor and disabled still badly hit
• Poor bastards are picking up the mess left by those labour fuckwits
• Poor economy at present
• Previous history
• problems might not be over yet so precautions must be in place
• Projected income depends on estimates which may not be forthcoming
• Pulled out of hat. Or arse. Who are these 170000 people going to work for?
• Put away the rose tinted spectacles. No way that there will be a surplus in 5 years. Our GDP is far too small. And the rest of the world is still struggling. Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain in particular. Where does this gov't think that the prosperity will come from.
• putting more pressure on small businesses will make them close down thus making more un employed
• quake - agriculture sector
• re build of Christchurch will create jobs
• Realistic, but many things could change it, like another Earthquake or global recession. However I think the outlook is positive, there is focus on job-creating initiatives and the rebuild will hopefully take that into account - even look at creating growth in renewable energy and conservation in building designs...
• rebuild in Christchurch alone will account for most of this
• Rebuild of Chch and improving economy - we have turned the corner.
• Rebuilding Christchurch will help economic growth and economic growth worldwide is improving
• Reconstruction of Christchurch will generate some jobs, but unless the people of NZ allow the government dig up those minerals it will be a little tough.
• Recovery from economic turmoil, free trade with China who will continue to grow, jobs from RWC, Christchurch rebuild, and Auckland super city projects will all help
• Reducing government spending will reduce economic growth.
• Regrettably, the Kiwi attitude is very pessimistic
• Robbing Peter to pay Paul.. Its nearly a Ponzi scheme
• Saying that 170,000 jobs are going to miraculously appear is frankly deluded.
• seems a big ask given the intended cuts
• Seems about right.
• seems to be "robbing peter to pay paul" system Still amounts to the rich getting richer with the taxpayer paying the most
• Seems to be moving in the right direction
• Seems unlikely the way things are at present!
• Selling assets making high returns.... is crazy. Cutting the public service further is based on doctrine alone.
• Selling of profitable asset only gives a once off injection while keeping them the money keeps coming in
• selling state assets will lose us money which will go overseas
• should happen with chch rebuild
• Simple! There are not enough jobs to go around.
• Simply because I don't believe it will happen so quickly.
• So far they have not real lived up to their things, why now?
• So much can change to throw the forecast out -- depends on election results!!
• So that the government can help those who are really in need and cannot work.
• Some employers don’t want people who are more qualified than them, so they don’t have to pay top dollar.
• some forecasts are even more generous than that they are perhaps being too conservative
• Some people are finding it hard enough to find jobs & prospective employers are cutting back on staff
• Some stimulus will be available through the rugby world cup and Christchurch rebuilding but these will not be long term. Most other sectors are not anticipating the kind of growth that the government is predicting. Global economic situation is very unstable the prediction seems to be very much best case scenario. Very optimistic view.
• something had to be done to bring debt under control
• something has to be done before it is too late
• Sounds too good to be true.
• Speculation and previous history shows that it will only be getting worst.
• Still hard to get a job and unless the jobs are actually created by the businesses that are progressing it will continue to be so
• Still too many of the workforce will go to Australia.
• Stimulatory effect of Chch rebuild and overseas reinsurance money being repatriated
• taking money of people ain't going to help
• Talk is cheap. We have heard it all before
• That has not happened for years. all for votes
• That is the prediction in the ideal situation. It is possible on the condition that all the changeable factors work together.
• That seems like a massive amount of jobs particularly at a time when businesses are going broke, people cannot afford start-up capital and generally it is a gloomy time.
• That's a lot of jobs! When you consider that agriculture is our biggest exporter it would probably employ the least people for the exports it generates,
• That's just what they are... Assumptions... Rather buy a lotto ticket every week for the next 4 years.
• that’s what they said last year
• The best forecast that can be made at this stage
• The chch earthquake rebuild will create a lot of jobs
• The Christchurch Earthquake will generate more jobs to repair and rebuild buildings and damaged water mains
• The cost of Kiwi saver to business will increase without an increase in output and profit, new jobs will be affected. Economic growth is optimistic with increased operating costs i.e power, fuel and rising bank charges
• The country is haemorrhaging so many highly qualified people that there will be no one left to take up these so called jobs.
  No working plan is currently in progress to actually create jobs now! Or to retain our brightest and best.
• The country is in the doldrums, and that many new jobs just won't happen.
• the country is too far in debt
• The country just has to save money and it has to create jobs
• The current debt level is too high
• The current national government don’t know their arse from their elbow and just lie to the people about what their really up to.
• The cutting of kiwi saver payments and now expecting the employer to pay more into the system means that there will be less money to pay for workers. Also they should have a youth rate so that more people can get work at a cheaper rate
• The deficit is too big. The jobs - where from? They cannot be spun from the air. No good cutting Govt spending and sending more people out on the streets, and at the same time promising more jobs? Intelligence says this is NOT compatible.
• The disaster in Japan and the shaky American economy will impact our economy significantly in the next 4 years, and we have to rebuild what we can of Christchurch - we'll be treading water at best.
• The downward trend cannot continue; it has to get better..
• The earthquake bill for Christchurch is large. Four percent is a lot. Continual growth is unnecessary and a virus-like approach to economics. It is impossible. Just focus on breaking even, not growth.
• The earthquake recovery and strong commodity prices will give some stimulation to the economy, despite the drag down from Auckland.
• The economic growth is probably about right gut to create this no of jobs is possibly way off
• The economy has almost never grown at such a rate and the policy fundamentals don't match that expectation.
• The economy is starting to get better and the rebuilding of Christchurch will also assist the economy
• The economy is still in recovery mode and predicting the speed of that recovery is very difficult
• The economy is still smaller than in 2007, and the 4% growth is off this lower base.
• The economy will take significantly longer than 4 years to fully recover from the GCF and the Christchurch earthquake and therefore 4% growth is being highly optimistic. Most of the 170,000 jobs created (if it reaches that number) will likely be short-term contracted work relating to the reconstruction of Christchurch, once construction jobs are complete those contractors will either be left unemployed again or they will move overseas.
• the employer and the working man get hit every time and can’t afford to spend money so to expect a 4% growth is unrealistic even a 5 year old who has to cut back on what they are eating can tell you that. As for 170,000 jobs again the businessman has to employ someone and they can’t afford it. Every politician should take a 50% pay cut.
• The figures are based on Treasury predictions and will reflect the leaning required by the government. If they are not achieved the whole budget will crumble.
• The financial measures like capitalising on assets and reducing the WFF and KS burden will allow this
• The forecast is based on economic projections done by suitably qualified specialists...
• The forecast is based on figures provided by Treasury - they have been wrong before but any Government must base its assumptions on the advice of so called experts.
  That's why it’s called a forecast.
• The forecast is based purely on positive assumption with no real initiative to support it.
• The forecasts for the last 3 years have been far too optimistic - apart from the chch rebuild i don’t see anything that suggest we should expect rapid and long term growth.
• The GFC crisis is not over yet, China, USA and Europe still have large structural problems.
• The global economy is in downward trending state, whilst inflation is upward trending. Any growth will be in numbers and not real wealth.
  
  Increasing productivity does not feature in plans.
• the goals are right
• The government has proven to be full of promises they haven't kept, this issue is another that will join that list, IMO.
• The government always makes plans to please the public so they can stay as favourites the truth is without actual change in the system we will not go anywhere.
• The Government always say thing that are going to happen and they are normally wrong we are still in recession and that will take a good 4 to 6 year to get on top of
• The government can forecast as much as they want but nothing promising as yet
• The government forecasts over the last 2 years have been wildly inaccurate, what makes this one worth believing
• The government had already said that it would create jobs but this hasn't happened and i don't believe it would happen. The government is just fooling people.
• The Government have spelt out how we as NZers' can perhaps make the idea positive
• The government is doing nothing to generate growth or jobs.
• The government is only interested in their pay checks not the NZ public
• The Government spending is reduced but with recovery of Canterbury will create new jobs over the next 2 to 5 years.
• The government wants to be re-elected, I think they're just talking things up.
  I feel we are still in a recession, people are hurting.
• The government's forecasts have been so far out in the past you cannot trust them.
• The Government is just off-loading its costs to the general public who have no way of absorbing or addressing the increase. There is a move to slash the public sector reducing jobs not increasing them
• the govt no matter who will keep saying there will be jobs created then they get skilled people to do the work even outsiders
• The govt will say what they want and the ruling govt will say everything is OK but not everything is always as it seems
• The Govt., hasn't actually done anything to make any jobs.
• the growth level appears possible but it is hard to see where 170,000 new jobs will come from beyond the obvious Chch rebuild until manufacturing and tourism returns to health
• The huge influx of insurance money to rebuild Christchurch will have an immediate positive effect on the economy and with careful management will produce a more productive Canterbury.
• The indicators are in place for an economic upturn =- building sector is starting to move, commodities are good and retail looks to be on the up -
• The Neo Liberal hands off approach of the Govt will not create jobs as fast as they predict
• The only growth seems to be coming from Canterbury rebuild which is finite and not part of growth from sound fiscal policy
• The past 3 forecasts of growth have been significantly inaccurate.
  To justify decisions on unsupported speculation in invalid economics
• The present Government does not seem to understand basic economics and does not have the fortitude to make a decision and stay with it.
• The present government seems to only represent the wealthy and where will the jobs come frommmmmmm and also we cannot compete with Australia
• The problems with forecasts are they are exactly that - a best guest based on current info. Unfortunately the base for these predictions/conditions can change very quickly - take the Chch earthquake for an example. So while the figures look good I think they are based on hope rather than anything solid.
• The rebuild of Christchurch should have this effect but other factor like a shortage of qualified trades people may slow this process down.
• The rebuild of Christchurch will generate a lot more jobs over those years.
• The rebuilding of Chch will stimulate growth
• The rebuilding of Christchurch will require a lot of man hours for all trades in the building industry
• The recession is coming to an end.
• the state sector cuts will cause more unemployment, not create new jobs
• The Treasury forecasts of GDP over the last 3 years have been wrong. Four % in this climate is wildly optimistic.
• The Treasury is consistently wrong in its forecasts and this relies on world commodity prices staying at their record levels.
• The unemployment rate I think will just increase with the job cuts fore-casted for gov departments also selling state assets will mean businesses will make job cuts for 'efficiency'. I think it will just get harder and harder for people to find jobs.
• The unemployment rate is higher than statistics given, current government fixated on money/economics, not creating jobs
• The way they've put it it seems realistic
• The whole 'Z' project with the petrol stations will open up so many jobs, especially since bringing the call centre back to NZ.
• the work force will leave for better payee overseas leaving an old nearly retiring work force behind
• The world economic climate for next year is impossible to predict - and this will have a major effect on New Zealand's possible economic growth
• The world economy has a huge effect on ours
• The world is gonna end in less than 48 hours! Lol.
  I don't know that it's going to be that good, but I hope I am wrong. Our economy certainly needs some positive movements. I'm not sure that the next year will be much improvement over now, but after that, maybe. Too far out to make a real prediction!
• The world will have to come out of recession first
• Their forecasts are based on vague hopes, not facts. Given the number of natural disasters worldwide in the last year, the weak worldwide economy and NZ's debt load, I think they are living in la-la land.
• their forecasts are too ambitious
• Their forecasts have been incorrect in the past
• There are a lot of factors outside NZ control that could effect this forecast
• There are always a lot of unknown factors that influence the economic growth
• There are many ways this could be impacted and it is difficult to see this as a net growth...how many losses against this growth from Govt budget cuts?
• There has been too much damage due to nature, that is a big ask for the 4%
• there is a growing need for Jobs, , , they are just not out there AT ALL
• There is an election coming up and they need some good news for the voters even if it may be assumptions
• There is no evidence that this will happen, we don't know the future, we can make predictions on what's happening now.
• There is no evidence to support such a rapid turnaround. The Government has no plan for growth. It's just wishful thinking.
• There is no evidence to support that view ...or to oppose it.
• there is no incentive
• There is no incentive for anyone to have a go & start up a business, once you get going the taxes & overheads kill it.
• there is no plan to increase revenue and all the public sector cuts are shrinking the economy
• There are no real incentives for small business, and also what hat are they going to pull 170,000 jobs from. All rhetoric.
• There is no real way to know, until it actually happens. Like anything.
• There is no way the average person is going to have more to spend, especially us older ones as like it or not there IS age discrimination when there are so many younger ones unemployed and a large portion of those "new jobs" will just be getting the poor folk of Greymouth, Christchurch and other hard hit areas (floods, factory shutdowns etc) of the last year or so back on their feet.
• There is not a lot of work in New Zealand.
• There is not growth so where are the jobs coming from
• There is nothing in the budget to stimulate growth. Cutting government spending has been found to impair growth.
• there is nothing that counters the greenies who are stifling industrial & agricultural growth
• There is nothing that is helpful for ME
• There is nothing to back up those figures. The past forecasts have been unrealistic.
• There is plenty of scope for renewed growth
• There is still a recession going on.
• There is the major re-build of Christchurch that will generate income and I am sure the Govt has done its homework
• There is the re-build of Christchurch. To bring the economy back into surplus work needs to be created, the public spend and arrest inflation and increase our GDP.
• There is too much uncertainty in the world at the moment to be able to tell whether or not this budget will turn out to be realistic!
• there not that man y jobs around
• There seems to be more unemployment than what the govt is aware of
• There will be a lot of new jobs- at least in CH CH
• There will be jobs coming out of Christchurch in the near future, apart from there, where from? And as for 4% growth, where from?
• There will be many new jobs because of Christchurch but there won't be any extra anywhere else.
• There needs to be more jobs, ad ways to keep New Zealanders in New Zealand. In April of this year more people than ever moved to Australia
• There's a worldwide recession and the world is coping with both peak oil ad climate change.
• These are just forecasts not based on facts
• These are merely Treasury long forecast figures. Treasury has not been note for its accuracy. This is the same as long forecast weather. This is a very optimistic figure. One might say it is Alice in Wonderland stuff.
• These are very specific and difficult stats to put forward-especially when you are dealing with people.
• These figures depend upon optimistic treasury forecasts being realised there could well be another global crisis that impacts on this country or another natural disaster. You cannot create growth by cutting spending. It causes depression and stagnation.
• These projections are based on a world economy that is improving and take no account of a possible global downturn. There are already signs that the Chinese economy is cooling and India, Brazil and Russia are neutral.
• These projections are based on treasury figures and they are not what is called reliable they have also counted in the figures for selling off our assets nothing is real it’s all an illusion to hide the fact that the National govt do not have a clue.
• These-called 170000 new jobs have to be balanced against all those who have lost, are losing and will lose their jobs!
• they (GOVERMENT) have always been saying these things, but it is never true, just a way to get people-le on board to believe in them
• They are also cutting jobs in private sectors so if new jobs are created won't it just be replacing the jobs of the people who have been made redundant rather than providing new jobs for the currently unemployed?
• They are assuming they will still be the government. I'm no financial wizard, but I cannot see that they will achieve their aims.
• They are banking on the rebuild of Christchurch creating more jobs, but I think it will just soak up people from other areas that are struggling.
• They are banking on there being no black swans.
• They are based on forecasts and not concrete information
• They are based on speculation rather than good figures.
• They are basing this on Treasury's forecasts which have been wildly wrong for the past three years. As overseas circumstances don't really seem to be improving, I fail to see how NZ is going to be any different.
• They are counting on the refurbishment of Christchurch to make up the numbers. They are only temporary jobs.
• they are dreaming
• They are forecasting off a low base
• They are from treasury, check their previous predictions.
• They are guessing
• They are just fixing left behind by the economic vandals Cullen and Clark
• They are just guess work, and no details of how those jobs are to be created
• they are never write in what they say
• They are not moving fast enough in job creation. Think how much time has been wasted between quakes when there could have been many apprenticeships underway and retired craftsmen and women could have been retrained for mentoring young apprentices.
• they are shedding jobs not creating them
• They are slashing govt. jobs which will add more people to the unemployment line which will mean there is even more competition for any jobs that come up. Low wages mean less spending which equals reduced business for companies which means no extra jobs.
• They are taking more money off everyone via KiwiSaver and the like, and they think this is going to cause growth?
• they are trying to improve nz
• They are trying to increase investment and savings and yet they cut KiwiSaver, the most popular investment scheme???!!!
• They can never be trusted with what they say or forecast!
• They cannot or will not keep their word. So who is going to trust a government that lies and does not live up to their pre-election promises.
• They could have been harder on the working man and easier on the employers but I think they have reach a happy medium to create growth and prosperity
• they couldn’t even manage to create 50,000 jobs after their big think tank in the last couple of years
• They didn't say how they could do that.
• They have been wrong consistently
• They have had four years already to do something about unemployment and its gotten worse not better, they are full of promises and no results.
• They have not actually said how
• They have not created jobs so far so how will they now?
• they have not managed any forward movement over the last three years (1 year was not really their fault) but now election time looms they tell us they can turn everything around , as the Tui ad says "yea right"
• They have not shown any plan or vision on how they are going to achieve this, cutting spending alone will not generate jobs.
• They have planned well, but the world economy will dictate and if any more natural disasters occur in NZ then all the planning in the world will not be able to cope in these situations. I do believe the government though have done a great job with what they have at this point in time.
• They have previously assumed that their laissez-faire approach would create growth and employment, it hasn't worked so far.
• they have said nothing about how they are going to create these jobs, while still sacking public servants
• They have shown no plans for job or economic growth creation
• They have shown themselves prudent so far and John Key is an experienced financier
• They haven't delivered on their previous promises and have doubled unemployment. 170,000 real jobs yeah right!!
• They haven't done it so far, so what makes them think they will be able to create more jobs in the next four years? Who will they employ and who will be the employers?
• They haven't got much right so far.
• They haven't produced any jobs in the last three years and show no new ideas in this budget
• They haven't provided any substantiation around how these jobs will be created. Christchurch rebuild will generate some, but what other industries will?
• They know what they are doing more so than the last mob
• They may think so but there is no concrete evidence of it.
• They promise so much but go back on every promise
• they promised so many jobs creating cycleways but they didn't follow through with their promise
• They say anything that will get them back into power.
• They say that so many new jobs will be created??? what about all the losses from govt depts
• They will get voted out.
• They will have small business closing again , and as always hurt the people struggling most with families.
• They will not get 4%....maybe 2% as for creating 170,000 new jobs, I would need to know where/what. If it was offering small incentives to grow MUCH more food for us and export, and really pushed this along with whatever else I have no idea WHERE those jobs will be coming from.. The world will desperately need food next year...there is already a HUGE shortage. Evan MANY of our immigrants could start little businesses doing this...
• They're cutting so many public service sector jobs as it is - where will these new jobs come from?
• things are already on the up and with the rebuild in chch it will help nz recovery
• Things are really difficult at this time so it was very appropriate
• Things are stagnant due to the economy and constant natural disasters, I don't see things improving over the next 4 years but I guess they have to try.
• Things are tough right now and it may take a little longer to turn around!
• Things just feel very gloomy for our family and it's hard to be optimistic
• Things look bleak - but perhaps when Christchurch rebuild starts it will kick start economy.
• Things seem to be on the up again
• Think the government have set up a good platform to manage the country’s economy
• Think the growth won't be that high and where are all the new jobs going to come from
• Think these expectations are too high and they haven't taken into consideration events such as natural disasters
• Think they plucked the number of new jobs out of the air. Totally unrealistic
• This government has always striven to create growth, but has had major factors working against it from the onset. Firstly due to the outgoing government's dishonesty about the country's financial state after the last election National came in with a false impression of available financial assets. Then there were the on-going effects of the worldwide recession, global increases in various commodities and of course the financial impact of the Christchurch earthquake. I think they have good intentions as to future growth, but we won't know the impact outside forces could have and what those forces might be.
• this government really is flying by the seat of its pants
• This govt has no economic idea. They have not accounted for worldwide economic and currency fluctuations. They are undermining infrastructure, which will not grow the economy.
• this govt will never in a thousand years create 170.000 jobs
• This growth is said to largely come from the rebuild of Christchurch. If so, this is a short term activity and does nothing for sustainable long term job growth
• This I believe is based that no major effects in economy and world etc would occur, or any disasters in the next 4 years. Everything needs to be perfect
• This is based on an all going good scenario .. If anything happens like another large scale natural disaster or fuel prices increasing further then this well be thrown out of whack
• This will only happen if the housing market goes up 4% and it won't.
• tide has to turn shortly
• Time will tell. What are the jobs going to be?
• To achieve the creation of new jobs there has to be a growth in the economy. Something they have promised over the past three budgets but they have not achieved this so far. This latest budget doesn't inspire this promised growth.
• to me that is extremely optimistic
• To save money jobs are to be cut so the new jobs will not be such a real increase
• Too easy made calculation and not make prediction how about the effect to the employer. Are the government can make guarantee with this way can make more people get jobs ????????????????? Government not give detail how about the program can make many new jobs in the future !!!!!!!!!~
• Too large a turnaround from current.
• Too many factors can influence
• too many on some form of benefit in the country
• too many people are being laid off now, how does the government expect to increase job creation now, they promised that very thing last election, didn’t happen
• Too many unknown factors on the back of bloated government / welfare.
• Too many variables not taken into account. It is not a perfect world
• Too many variables to say absolutely
• Too optimistic
• Totally unrealistic to expect the world situation to have achieved equilibrium in this period, therefor NZ likewise............
  unless there's a world war.
• Treasury also forecast substantial economic and job growth for the past two years... I’m yet to see any of it actually happen, why should I have confidence in the latest optimistic treasury predictions?
• Treasury forecast for economic growth prior to the Christchurch earthquakes as for 2.9%. 4% therefore seems a very heroic assumption given the poor state of New Zealand's economy.
• Treasury forecasts are crap
• Treasury forecasts are made by people who do not lose their jobs when they get it wrong. They don't have a good track record.
• Treasury forecasts have been notoriously wrong on growth figures year on year, what is there to think that they will be right this time ? To create a further 170000 jobs this requires a detailed plan as to know which industries and where in NZ these will come from. No plan - that I have seen so this figure is just a John Key pie in the sky exercise.
• Treasury has been consistently wrong over the last three years and there aren't any indications, yet, of the economy coming out of the extended recession that this governments policies brought about.
• Treasury has been wrong repeatedly. They are likely to be wrong again. Assumption is a nice word for what they're doing.
• Treasury hasn't exactly covered itself in glory with past predictions
• Treasury have been over-optimistic in all recent growth forecasts. Perhaps if RMA was rolled back, and youth rates reinstated, there might be a chance of better employment -- but not with "no change" to the current level of bureaucracy.
• Treasury have often been completely wrong.
• Treasury is not credible
• Treasury never gets it right.
• Treasury seems to have some doubts about the figures
• Treasury's forecasts for the recent years have been 2-3%higher than what actually eventuated.
• Um - because treasury are always under-predicting positives with a labour government and over-predicting positives with a national government. Their predictions this year are close, as far as I know, to what they predicted last year - and THAT didn't work out the way they expected. Why give any credibility to people who are consistently wrong?
• Uncertain times.
• Unfortunately i think the budget was based on too many unrealistic promises that are best guesses not certainties
• Unless they are talking about part time jobs it is absolute bullshit. They are going to be laying off hundreds of state servants, Chch has a enormous loss of workplace, many will not return, people are struggling.
• Up until now they haven't create too many new jobs
• Very dependent on world conditions
• Very little difference - until after the election when the full impact will become clear
• wait and see
• We are a micro economy and controlled by the events overseas more so than internally (excluding natural disasters), and there is too much instability globally that can/will impact us. The National Govt is using the best possible scenario given to them to justify this budget
• We are in debt. Cuts are necessary to pay back and to stimulate the economy.
• We are still in Depression
• we can produce food and the world needs food
• We failed to meet similar expectations last year.
• We have a lot of debt and the Christchurch earthquake will cost a lot of money to sort.
• we have heard it all before
• We have high commodity prices and these will be filtering thru over the next year
• We have lost to much of the man power and expertise(thanks to the red party) to adequately power industry to fulfil the Nats wish list
• We have seen no growth in over two years; 4% in the next four years seems unattainable
• We have the best economic managers available trying to fix the massive hole that labour deliberately put us in. They are making the best of the crisis and the aftermath of the earthquake.
• We have to be otherwise what is the use.
• We have to work on economic growth otherwise our country will suffer badly
• We haven't had growth anywhere near that for quite a while, and I don't think they are doing anything that will cause those jobs to appear out of nowhere.
• we must start going forward shortly
• We must start to live within our income.
• We need to create jobs which requires spending and also ensure that state work is only being tendered to NZ companies
• We need to have a positive outlook to help financial growth
• We need to stay positive
  Jobs can be created through new infrastructures, rugby world cup
• We never get the growth we expect. If we get to 4% it will be because of the CHCH recovery & drop off in 2013
• We seem to have the opportunity to increase our exports in all areas of the economy at the present time. By allowing some new areas of our sea and land to be looked at with the possibility of great mineral developments there the possibility of many new jobs, skilled and unskilled are opened up.
• We should be more self-sustaining in keeping our debt down . What we grow , produce , make should pay for the debt plus . Why not drop borrowing . Drop prices . Reduce spending overseas ? We can produce all that we as a country needs and still export to reduce debts .
• Well hopefully if growth in the economy is at 4% then that should equate to more jobs, especially once Chch gets up and building again.
• well how long will it take to rebuild Christchurch, and get that up and running again
• Well it’s never happened before How can they forecast that 170,000 new jobs will be created when the work force must have lost that over the last few years
• Well we can hope, can't we?
• Well, Christchurch's rebuilding will create many, many jobs
• We're in a recession. Where's the economic growth supposed to be coming from?
• Western economies are still slowing down with very little growth on top of this China is also showing signs of slowing. Many of the jobs created will go to overseas workers. Selling SOEs will of course make the rich even richer with a bigger share of our assets going to the same people who gained after the ill-conceived tax cuts, even when the recession could be seen coming.
• We’ve heard it all before!
• What happened in Christchurch has certainly helped to create jobs. I guess the economy can't go any worse than it was last two years!
• What industries will provide the jobs?
• What is being done to generate all these supposed "new jobs"? Just because there has been an earthquake, doesn't mean that magically new jobs are like bloody mushrooms and will begin popping up all over the place.
• What they are proposing will have been looked into thoroughly, in my opinion a lot of this has come about due to the lies that labour told!
• What type of industry is going to be created to do this?
• WHEN HAS GOVERNMENT STUCK TO WHAT THEY HAVE SAID
• When making a (non politicised) budget you usually are conservative in income.
• When we are so low the only way to go is up
• where are all these people going to work when many of our companies are going off shore and smaller towns have factories closing left right and centre
• Where are all those jobs going to come from? After all, nothing in the budget to promote business growth.
• where are the jobs coming from
• Where are the jobs coming from , all this government can do is spend money.
• Where are the jobs coming from apart from Canterbury rebuilt? They have no plan to create jobs.
• Where are the jobs coming from, also if Government Officers are being laid off this only adds to unemployment
• Where are the jobs coming from, apart from the rebuilding of Christchurch which would only be a temporary surge in employment?
• Where are the jobs coming from. A new job would be good as I just lost my job Friday 13th and have never been unemployed before
• Where are the jobs coming from. Any new employment situations will simply replace those lost such as in the closing of the mines and loss of businesses in Christchurch. Not to mention all the call centres that have been taken overseas
• Where are the jobs coming from. power companies are going to lay off staff because of the new meters, the government gives work to overseas firms while kiwis can’t find work
• Where are the jobs coming from?
• Where are the jobs coming from? There is no evidence to support these assumptions. This govt does not have a track record of creating new jobs or even growing the economy.
• Where are the jobs coming from
• where are the jobs going to be created
• Where are the jobs going to be? economic growth has been going backwards so far so 4% growth would bring it back to 0%
• Where are the new jobs going to appear from!
• where are these 170000 new jobs, i don’t think so / savings in the state sector will mean layoffs
• Where are these jobs coming from and for whom?
• Where are these jobs going to come from? The government has mentioned that many of these jobs will be in Christchurch but it is unrealistic to expect people to travel down there for extended periods. Where is this 4% growth coming from? What areas are they encouraging growth in?
• Where are these jobs? If they're in Canterbury that means people will have to move there with their families and where will they stay, can Canterbury sustain them?
• Where are these new jobs to come from. People now cannot get jobs
• Where are they coming from and who employing and paying the people that will get these jobs????
• Where are they coming from? Apart from rebuilding Christchurch the rest of the country is still grinding to a holt
• Where are they going to get these jobs from. CHCH will produce some but surely they need mostly tradesmen for there.
  Why haven't they produced these jobs before?
• Where do they think that the money is going to come from to create this economic growth, dairying is currently where the income is generated, farms are getting bigger by buying up the smaller units, which in turn puts people out of work. Manufacturers are finding it too expensive to have a large business in NZ and are taking their factories overseas, laying off more people and now with the change in kiwi saver where the employer and the employee are expected to increase the amount they put into savings the employee cannot expect to get increases in wages.
• Where does the government expect these 170,000 jobs to magically appear from? They have no plan for job creation - only funding cuts that will result in drastic jobs cuts in the public sector. Where will the growth come from if there is not a fully resourced and strong public sector to support and drive sound policy decisions and deliver the public services needed to promote and accommodate growth?
• Where is the government going to find so many new jobs when they have made cuts to the government sector
• Where is the money going to come from to create these new jobs
• Where the jobs coming from i want one!!!!!!
• Where will all these jobs come from?????
• Where do they expect the new jobs to come from? Employees already under the strain .
• Which sector are the jobs going to be in??
• While the government forecasts this growth, I don't think its forecast takes into account the negative effect of some of its policies. At the same time, I'm not overly pessimistic about their effect in terms of economic growth.
• While there may be some short-term improvement in employment because of the extreme caution over the last two years, manufacturing is still being sent overseas and the Government is closing down services and creating its own redundancies.
  To count on the world economy expanding sufficiently for the sort of growth being assumed is at best unrealistic.
• Who is creating the jobs?
• who knows what is going to happen over the next 4 years
• who knows what is in the future for National
• who knows what the future holds
• Why hasn't this been done already, has it already been tried and tested?
• Why should NZ experience these things when larger countries don't expect to?
• why would the job market change suddenly over the next 4 years compared to the last 4 or so
• with John Key at the helm, bring an astute businessman, I feel it can be achieved
• With a zero deficit to start with to a massive deficit in two years how they predict a complete turnaround in four years? It is a false promise to obtain another term.
• With employers having to find extra tax and contributions to kiwi saver I don’t think they will be racing to employ people. And where are the jobs coming from.
• With many of the business people i known locally struggling i assume it's similar for others nationwide. I find it difficult to see how we are to go forward and create economic growth currently with the economy as it is.
• With such low growth in the last couple of years I just don't know how they there is going to be 4% growth in such a short time, especially if they are cutting jobs in the public sector. Surely it slows down growth.
• With the CHCH rebuilt it can definitely create new jobs
• With the Christchurch earthquake affecting the growth of our economy, unless we increase our exports it is probably an optimistic view - but worth aiming for.
• With the Christchurch Earthquake there is a lot of builders and related trades people required. As most of these people have headed overseas, training will be done to enable the work to be carried out thus creating jobs.
• With the current weak economic policies of the government, they can't be certain.
• With the cuts the government makes these will follow through into the job market and I think that industries will make cuts also to make ends meet.
• With the earthquake rebuilding there will be more jobs
• With the expected cut backs in the public sector and low job rates in Chch the unemployment rate has to go up more first. Don’t tell they expect the cutbacks to be due to people retiring cos there won't be that many plus the expectation is for us all to work longer anyway
• With their cuts in Public sector spending they will be also cutting jobs in the private sector. Research shows that for every job created in the Public sector, 2 jobs in the private sector are eventually created, conversely for every job cut in the private sector 2 jobs are lost. How can this assist economic growth?
• Without a budgeted innovation programme, I do not see where this number of new jobs is coming from!!
• Work at my job is picking up and overall I've noticed that work has picked up a lot over the past year. I would say yes this is realistic.
• Worthwhile cuts will be made from vital areas and I trust National to be able to do the maths.
• Would need more information to give an opinion.
  Many factors could change over the next 4 years which could improve or inhibit the Government forecasts
• You cannot create jobs that simply are NOT there - employers have a lot of overheads and debts to reduce first from a bad few years in the economy.
• You don’t have to be a genius to know that Nz was going the way of other countries.
• You have to accept their word for this but as things stand it isn't going to be easy to achieve
• You have to think positive to make anything happen
• You have to think positive, and as soon as we can get Christchurch up and running again will improve things overall.