Less than 1% separates potential coalitions

The two potential coalitions which could govern New Zealand after November's general election  are less than 1% apart.

The latest HorizonPoll of 1201 people on Friday (July 22) finds the current governing coalition (National, Act, Maori Party, United Future) would secure 44.4%.

A Labour, Green, New Zealand First, Jim Anderton’s Progressives coalition 44.3%, with 7.6% remaining undecided.

The survey has a maximum margin of error of +/- 2.8%.

Horizon Research says Labour's new capital gains tax policy appears to have consolidated traditional support for Labour, but is not triggering a significant support rise. Labour’s party vote support is up 0.9% on its May result. National is up 2.2%. National has 10.2% more support than Labour.

However, among registered voters who will actually vote and have decided which party they would vote for if an election were held tomorrow, and those undecided who have a party preference, the current governing coalition (National, Act, Maori Party, United Future) would secure 44.4%.

A Labour, Green, New Zealand First, Jim Anderton’s Progressives coalition 44.3%, with 7.6% remaining undecided.

The Mana Party has 1.9%, down from 2.9% in May, the Maori Party 0.7% (1.2% in May).

The results indicate undecided voters and those currently choosing not to vote or say how they will vote, will most likely determine the election outcome and the minor parties will determine which main party forms a government.

The full Horizon Research Net Potential Vote results are here.