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National vote slips further 1.5%

6 Jun 12

National vote slips further 1.5%
National down further 1.5% in mostly pre-budget polling

6 June 2012

 

 

National’s party vote support among the total adult population has slipped a further 1.5% in the past month.

 

A HorizonPoll survey of 2,814 New Zealanders aged 18+, conducted between May 18 and June 6, 2012, finds National with 26.6% support.  This is down from 28.1% in April-May and from 32.31% of all those aged 18+ at the November 2011 general election.

 

Labour, while up from the 18.77% at the 2011 election, remains at 23.2% in May-June, compared with 23.4% in April-May. Labour secured 25% of the 18+ population vote when it lost to National in the 2008 election. It is edging back towards that level of support.

 

The Green Party has slipped back slightly in the past month, from 11% to 8.2%, but is still up on the 7.55% of the 18+ population who voted for it at the election.

 

New Zealand First continues to enjoy more support than it received at the 2011 election. It has 6.4% of all those aged 18+, compared with 5.4% a month ago and 4.5% at the 2011 election.

 

The Conservative Party has 3.3% support, Mana 1%, ACT 0.9% and the Maori Party  0.8%.

  

National has slipped 5.71% since the election. Labour is up 4.43%.

 

The results reflect the latest Colmar Brunton poll for TVNZ, which shows National has lost 4% of decided voters since the last election. (Horizon's results are for all people aged 18+ and include 20% undecided.) The May-June TV 3 Reid Research poll also shows a 4% National slip.

 

The latest slip shown in the HorizonPoll is mostly not related to the Budget. 85% of respondents’ interviews were completed before Budget day on May 24.

 

The survey is weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, personal income, employment status, region and party vote 2011 to provide a representative sample of the New Zealand population aged 18+. At a 95% confidence level, the maximum margin of error is +/- 1.8%.

 

The results of Horizon April-May polling are here.

 

 

 

 

 

Support as a percentage of total population 18+

 

2011 election

April 24- May 6,  2012

May 18 – June 6, 2012

National

32.31

28.1

26.6

Labour

18.77

23.4

23.2

Green

7.55

11

8.2

NZ First

4.5

5.4

6.4

 

Results by 2011 party vote:

If a New Zealand general election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for with your party vote?

Single Answer Only

A. ACT New Zealand
B. Conservative Party
C. Green Party
D. Labour Party
E. Mana Party
F. Maori Party
G. National Party
H. New Zealand First Party
I. United Future
J. Other party
K. Choose not to vote
L. Not eligible to vote
M. Don't know
 

Total

Act

C

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

J

K

L

M

  
                               

ALL

2814

0.9%

3.3%

8.2%

23.2%

1%

0.8%

26.6%

6.4%

0.4%

0.9%

6.4%

1.3%

20.4%

100%
                       

PARTY VOTE 2011

                      

ACT New Zealand

1%

44.9%

5.1%

        

18.9%

11.7%

3.6%

2%

2.3%

  

11.5%

100%

Chose not to vote

20%

0.2%

1.7%

2.9%

18.1%

    

7.6%

10.4%

  

1%

31.3%

  

26.9%

100%

National Party

33%

1.5%

3.8%

1.8%

4.2%

  

0.1%

74.4%

1%

0.1%

0.3%

0.1%

  

12.8%

100%

New Zealand First Party

4%

0.6%

1.4%

3.8%

8.1%

0.2%

0.1%

0.9%

75.7%

0.8%

0.9%

    

7.5%

100%

Other party

1%

3.7%

15.5%

              

78.2%

1.3%

  

1.3%

100%

Conservative

2%

  

65.7%

4.4%

5.2%

  

0.5%

4.3%

1.6%

2.1%

3.2%

1.6%

  

11.4%

100%

Green Party

7%

  

0.4%

76.5%

13.5%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

1.2%

  

0.1%

    

7.8%

100%

Labour Party

19%

  

0.2%

4%

83.4%

0.1%

0.2%

0.9%

2%

  

0%

    

9.1%

100%

Don't know or can't remember

9%

    

4.9%

7.5%

    

1.5%

0.3%

    

2.1%

  

83.8%

100%

Mana

1%

    

10.7%

3.8%

84.7%

              

0.8%

100%

United Future

1%

    

2.3%

18.3%

    

7.1%

8.4%

51.2%

3.7%

    

9%

100%

Was not eligible to vote

2%

    

3.7%

20.1%

    

7.6%

        

68.5%

  

100%

Maori Party

1%

      

16.2%

  

69.1%

2.4%

0.6%

        

11.7%

100%

 

For further information, please contact

Graeme Colman

Principal

Horizon Research Limited.

Telephone: 021 84 85 76

E-mail: gcolman@horizonresearch.co.nz;

 

Grant McInman

Manager

Horizon Research

Telephone: 021 076 2040

E-mail: gmcinman@horizonresearch.co.nz

 

On the web: www.horizonpoll.co.nz