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National, Labour slip in party vote poll

25 Sep 12

National, Labour slip in party vote poll
National, Labour down so far in September

National and Labour have both lost support among the 18+ population as a whole in the latest Horizon Research poll.

 

News of job losses and illegal intelligence gathering do not appear to have driven any statistically significant changes in voting overnight, with a 1% move away from National and 1% move to Labour.

 

About 714 of the 2,425 responses to the poll were made between 4.30pm September 24 and 12.20pm September 25, following the announcement of job losses by Solid energy, Kiwi Rail and Nuplex and reports of unlawful intelligence gathering by the Government Communications security Bureau (GCSB).

 

The September 21 to 25 survey is weighted by age, gender, personal income, ethnicity, educational qualifications, employment status and party vote 2011 to provide a representative sample of the adult population aged 18+ at the last census. At a 95% confidence level of the maximum margin of error is +/- 2%.

 

National has the support of 24.8% of people aged 18+, down from 32.31% at the 2011 general election.

 

Labour’s has 19.1%, compared with 18.77% at the last election. It has been losing support since May.

 

The NZ First vote has risen to 7.8%, up nearly 2% since the previous HorizonPoll in July 2012.  It had 4.5% 18+ support at the 2011 general election. Green support is at 11.4%, down from 13% in July but up from 7.55% at the 2011 election.

 

National has the support of 68.3% of those who voted for it in 2011. Its voters have not so much moved to other parties but to being not sure: 18% now say they don’t know how they will vote.

 

The results indicate a Labour-Green coalition would have 30.5% support, just under the 32.31% National had in 2011 which saw it secure 49% of the votes cast.  Some 22.2% of voters in the September poll are still undecided.

 

NZ First support from the cross benches could be critical in deciding which parties might form the next Government.

 

 

Support as a percentage of total population 18+

 

 

2011 election

April 24- May 6,  2012

May 18 – June 6, 2012

July 6-18, 2012

September 21-25, 2012

National

32.31

28.1

26.6

26.5

24.8

Labour

18.77

23.4

23.2

20.5

19.1

Green

7.55

11

8.2

13

11.4

NZ First

4.5

5.4

6.4

5.9

7.8

 

 

 

Respondents’ party vote preferences compared with votes they cast at the 2011 general election:

 

HorizonPoll September 2012

Survey Results Table (Weighted)

If a New Zealand general election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for with your party vote?

Multichoice - Single Answer Only

A. ACT New Zealand
B. Conservative Party
C. Green Party
D. Labour Party
E. Mana Party
F. Maori Party
G. National Party
H. New Zealand First Party
I. United Future
J. Other party
K. Choose not to vote
L. Not eligible to vote
M. Don't know
 

Total

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

J

K

L

M

  
                               

ALL

2425

0.5%

3.1%

11.4%

19.1%

1.4%

0.7%

24.8%

7.8%

0.2%

0.5%

7.8%

0.4%

22.2%

100%
                       

PARTY VOTE 2011

                      

ACT New Zealand

1%

38.1%

19.6%

1.1%

    

16.1%

12.5%

2.8%

  

5.1%

    

4.8%

100%

Chose not to vote

18%

0.3%

2.9%

4.5%

11.6%

    

8.9%

9.8%

    

39.3%

  

22.7%

100%

National Party

33%

0.5%

3%

2.1%

4.6%

    

68.3%

2.8%

0.2%

0.2%

0.4%

  

18%

100%

New Zealand First Party

4%

0.9%

1.7%

2.1%

7.6%

3.3%

  

1.5%

70.9%

  

0.7%

1.7%

  

9.7%

100%

Conservative

2%

  

57.4%

5.2%

2%

    

2.8%

5.4%

    

1.9%

  

25.3%

100%

Green Party

7%

  

0.3%

75.2%

7.2%

1.4%

  

1.5%

0.5%

  

0.8%

0.1%

  

13.1%

100%

Labour Party

19%

  

0.2%

8.1%

70.1%

2.2%

1.3%

0.5%

3%

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

  

14%

100%

United Future

0%

  

7.1%

  

11.7%

    

1.9%

  

51.1%

  

7.1%

  

21%

100%

Don't know or can't remember

8%

    

4.2%

0.6%

    

0.9%

5.5%

  

2.5%

4.2%

  

82.1%

100%

Mana Party

1%

    

5%

4.2%

75.6%

    

4.2%

    

1.2%

  

9.7%

100%

Maori Party

1%

    

9%

13.2%

2.4%

32%

0.7%

1.8%

        

40.8%

100%

Was not eligible to vote

4%

    

47.7%

16.2%

      

15.9%

      

9.9%

10.2%

100%

Other party

0%

            

21.6%

7.4%

  

44.1%

11.6%

  

15.2%

100%

 

 

The September poll is continuing. Registered members of the HorizonPoll panel can vote by clicking the Vote Now icon below. Non members can join here then return to this page to click Vote Now.

 

The results of Horizon April-May polling are here.

 

The HorizonPoll adult panel is recruited principally by e-mailed invitation to match the profile of the adult population at the 2006 census.

 

Weighting by six factors at one time further ensures results represent the adult population nationwide.

 

For further information, please contact

Graeme Colman

Principal

Horizon Research Limited.

Telephone: 021 84 85 76

E-mail: gcolman@horizonresearch.co.nz;

 

Grant McInman

Manager

Horizon Research

Telephone: 021 076 2040

E-mail: gmcinman@horizonresearch.co.nz

 

On the web: www.horizonpoll.co.nz