INCORPORATING SHAPENZ

Research Results

Close run result on preferences for change of coalition government

19 Jun 14

Close run results on preferred coalition government leadership

The close run nature of support for National and Labour led coalitions, if one is needed after the September 20 election, is confirmed in Horizon and Ipsos polls out today.

A Horizon poll of 1,925 adults nationwide between May 23 and June 16 (maximum margin of error +/- 2.2%) finds 67.8% think National will lead a coalition government after the election if one is needed. Only 32.2% think Labour will lead it.

When asked which main party they would prefer to lead a coalition if one were needed, 51.5% overall say Labour, 48.5% National. However, among those who say they are 100% likely to vote, 50.1% would prefer National to lead a coalition if one were needed, 49.8% Labour.

The Fairfax Ipsos telephone poll of 1000 respondents published today (maximum margin of error +/- 3%) found 43.8% thought it was time for a change in Government, 48% thought it was not and 8.2% were not sure.

In the Horizon poll the overall preference for a Labour led coalition has held steady since April, but the preference of those who say they are 100% likely to vote has swapped: Labour has gone from 50.5% in April to 49.8% and National has gone from 49.5% in April to 50.1%.

As these movements are within the margin of error for the April and June surveys, the results effectively confirm a 50/50 split of preference for leadership of a future coalition government, if one is needed, among those 100% likely to vote.

On May 25 the Prime Minister, John Key, was reported as telling a National Party conference at Hamilton that he predicted a "tight and tough" election with the Government up against a "left wing block" of parties.

Mr Key said National could not be lulled into a false sense of security by high polling numbers ahead of the September 20 general election.

The HorizonPoll released today also gives parties clear indications of who their supporters would like to lead a coalition government if one is needed. It includes a strong message to New Zealand First from its voters.

Those who prefer a National led coalition include 69.1% of those who voted for the Conservative Party in 2011, 94.4% of Act voters and 76.8% of United Future voters.

Those who prefer a Labour led coalition include 89.4% of the Greens’ 2011 voters, 77.2% of Mana’s, 57.1% of the Maori Party’s and 62.6% of New Zealand First’s.

Among those who chose not to vote in 2011, 58.9% prefer a Labour-led coalition. 69.0% of those not eligible to vote in 2011 would prefer a Labour-led coalition.

The election result will depend on voter turn-out, particularly among younger voters who are tending to support more than oppose a Labour-led coalition, if one is needed.

Results by the party respondents voted for at the 2011 general election are:

HorizonPoll May-June 2014

If there is a coalition government after the next general election, which main party do you think will lead it?	ALL	PARTY VOTE 2011
	ALL	ACT New Zealand	Conserv-ative	Green Party	Labour Party	Mana Party	Maori Party	National Party	New Zealand First Party	United Future	Other party	Chose not to vote	Was not eligible to vote	Don't know or can't remember

Labour	32.2%	11.9%	14.4%	52.8%	62.6%	53.6%	23.2%	9.7%	41.3%	0.0%	19.6%	27.9%	36.8%	32.2%
National	67.8%	88.1%	85.6%	47.2%	37.4%	46.4%	76.8%	90.3%	58.7%	100.0%	80.4%	72.1%	63.2%	67.8%


N	1,925	26	47	298	461	23	27	644	123	9	10	68	18	49

HorizonPoll May-June 2014

If there is a coalition government after the next general election, which main party would you prefer to lead it?	ALL	PARTY VOTE 2011
	ALL	ACT New Zealand	Conserv-ative	Green Party	Labour Party	Mana Party	Maori Party	National Party	New Zealand First Party	United Future	Other party	Chose not to vote	Was not eligible to vote	Don't know or can't remember

Labour	51.5%	5.6%	30.9%	89.4%	92.3%	77.2%	57.1%	10.2%	62.6%	23.2%	54.6%	58.9%	69.0%	55.6%
National	48.5%	94.4%	69.1%	10.6%	7.7%	22.8%	42.9%	89.8%	37.4%	76.8%	45.4%	41.1%	31.0%	44.4%


N	1,911	26	47	297	459	23	27	642	121	9	7	68	18	46

The HorizonPoll respondents are members of the Horizon’s notational research panel, recruited to represent the 18+ population. Results are weighted by age, ethnicity, educational qualifications, employment status and party voted for in 2011 to provide a representative sample of the adult population at the last census. At a 95% confidence level the maximum margin of error is +/- 2.2%.

For further information on Horizon Research polling please contact Grant McInman, Manager, e-mail gmcinman@horizonresearch.co.nz , telephone +64 21 076 2040.