Who’s going on honeymoon with the new Government

Nearly twice as many New Zealanders are feeling positive rather than negative about the effect the new Labour-led government will have on them personally.

A Horizon Research survey of 1,068 adults nationwide between October 24 and November 1, 2017, finds overall that

• 49% say the new government will positively affect them personally in the next three years
• 24% say it will affect them negatively
• 28% say the affect will be neither positive nor negative.

The numbers do not vary by gender.

However, increasing age drives changes in positive and negative feelings.

65% of those aged 18-24 feel the new government will impact them positively, while among those aged 75 or older this falls to 43%.

The group aged 65-74 years is the only one in which more feel negative than positive.

Party vote impact:

Which party people voted for in September is also strongly driving people’s outlooks.

92% of Labour voters and 91% of Green voters are feeling confident the new government will be good for them personally.

57% of New Zealand First voters feel positive, 20% negative, 24% neither positive nor negative, indicating the party’s voters are more satisfied than dissatisfied with the decision to form a coalition with Labour, supported by the Green party.

64% of Maori Party voters are positive, 9% negative.

However, only 13% of National and 24% of ACT voters are feeling positive. 54% of National voters are feeling negative, while a large 33% say neither positive nor negative.

Feelings by occupation:

Confidence the new government will affect them positively is as high as 77% among labourers, agricultural and domestic workers (12% negative), 76% among teachers, nurses, police and other trained services workers (15% negative); 60% among students (19% negative) and 46% among professionals and senior government officials (35% negative).

Among business managers and executives 30% are positive, 57% negative. Business proprietors and self-employed have a different outlook: 44% positive, 26% negative.

Household feelings:

Expectations of a positive three years are highest among

• extended family households (75% positive, 11% not), those
• flatting and boarding (74% v 15%);
• one parent families with one or two children at home (68% v 7%); and
• two parent families with three or more children at home (62% v 27%).

There are fewest positive feelings among

• single person households ( 33% positive, 26% negative)
• families with three or more children at home (30% v 2% - an indicative result as the number of respondents in this category is small)

Personal incomes:

Those on highest personal incomes are least positive.

• 76% of those earning $200,000 a year or more feel the new government will have a negative effect on them (15% think it will be positive)
• 68% of those earning between $100,001 and $150,000 are not positive, while 22% are.

However, among all other income groups more are feeling that the effect will be positive rather than negative, with peaks of 55% among those earning between $50,001 and $70,000 a year (26% negative) and 53% among those earning less than $20,000 a year (18% negative).

Full tables can be downloaded here.

Results are from a nationwide omnibus of 1068 adults representing the New Zealand adult population at the last census.  Weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, personal income, region and party voted for in 2017, at a 95% confidence level the maximum margin of error is +/- 3%.

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For further information please contact Grant McInman, Manager, Horizon Research, e-mail gmcinman@horizonresearch.co.nz, telephone +64 21 076 2040.