National has 8% lead over Labour, 20% undecided

National has an 8% lead over Labour in the latest HorizonPoll voting intentions survey covering 3,673 New Zealanders.

National has 30% of voters (3% down on its 2008 share of all adult New Zealanders).

Labour has 22% (3% down on its 2008 share of all adult New Zealanders).

ACT has 2% (down from 2.7% in 2008) but only 40% of its 2008 voters remain loyal.  Some 28% of ACT voters have switched to National while 19% say they don’t know who they would give their party vote to if a general election were held tomorrow.

New Zealand First has 4% (compared with 3% support at 2008).

The Maori Party has 2% (1.7% in 2008). Support for Jim Anderton’s Progressives and United Future is below 1% and shows as zero due to rounding.

The nationwide survey is weighted by age, gender, personal income, ethnicity, employment status and party vote 2008 to provide a nationally representative population sample. The maximum margin of error at a 95% confidence level is +/- 1.6%. It was conducted between August 24 and September 19, 2010.

Labour has 59% loyalty among its 2008 voters and has lost 5% of its 2008 voters to National.

National has 68% voter loyalty and has lost 5% of its 2008 voters to Labour.

Among 2008 voters who are now undecided, 17% are Labour’s, 13% National’s, 9% Green’s, 8% Maori Party’s, 14% NZ First’s, 19% ACT’s.

The results show no party could govern alone and the election result could be greatly influenced by

• the extent to which Act voters switch to National
• how many of the 187,000 people who did not vote at the last election turnout
• how the large number of undecided split between parties if they vote next time, and
• whether or not New Zealand First reaches the 5% threshold. It is currently within the survey’s margin of error.

If New Zealand First passes the 5% threshold, it could decide which of the main parties forms a coalition government.

A National, NZ First coalition would have 37% and 39% if the Maori Party became a partner.

A Labour-Green, New Zealand First coalition would have 32%, and 35% if the Maori Party became a partner.